Recent recruitment failure of lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus, a key prey fish in the North Sea, followed by several years of low spawning stock biomass, prompted us to investigate factors influencing the recruitment of this species. We tested 2 hypotheses that relate to ecological mechanisms of recruitment regulation in lesser sandeel: (1) a positive spawning stock-recruitment relationship is decoupled in years associated with high abundances of age-1 sandeels and (2) the survival success of early larvae depends specifically on the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus and not C. helgolandicus. The findings of the present study supported both hypotheses and resulted in a multiple linear recruitment model with pronounced predictive capabilities. The model includes interactions between age-1 abundance and spawning stock biomass, plus the effect of C. finmarchicus abundance, and it explained around 65% of the inter-annual variation in recruitment in contrast to only 12% by a traditional Ricker curve. We argue that early egg production in C. finmarchicus supports the survival of larvae, and that climate-generated shifts in the Calanus species composition lead to a mismatch in timing between food availability and the early life history of lesser sandeels.

Engelhard, G. H., Peck, M. A., Rindorf, A., Smout, S. C., van Deurs, M., Raab, K., Andersen, K. H., Garthe, S., Lauerburg, R. A. M., Scott, F., Brunel, T., Aarts, G., van Kooten, T., and Dickey-Collas, M. Forage fish, their fisheries, and their predators: who drives whom? – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71: . The North Sea has a diverse forage fish assemblage, including herring, targeted for human consumption; sandeel, sprat, and Norway pout, exploited by industrial fisheries; and some sardine and anchovy, supporting small-scale fisheries. All show large abundance fluctuations, impacting on fisheries and predators. We review field, laboratory, and modelling studies to investigate the drivers of this complex system of forage fish. Climate clearly influences forage fish productivity; however, any single-species considerations of the influence of climate might fail if strong interactions between forage fish exist, as in the North Sea. Sandeel appears to be the most important prey forage fish. Seabirds are most dependent on forage fish, due to specialized diet and distributional constraints (breeding colonies). Other than fisheries, key predators of forage fish are a few piscivorous fish species including saithe, whiting, mackerel, and horse-mackerel, exploited in turn by fisheries; seabirds and seals have a more modest impact. Size-based foodweb modelling suggests that reducing fishing mortality may not necessarily lead to larger stocks of piscivorous fish, especially if their early life stages compete with forage fish for zooplankton resources. In complex systems, changes in the impact of fisheries on forage fish may have potentially complex (and perhaps unanticipated) consequences on other commercially and/or ecologically important species.

Round goby Neogobius melanostomus is currently one of the most wide-ranging invasive fish species in Europe and North America. The present study demonstrates how the distribution of round goby has expanded from 2008 to 2013 at a rate of about 30 km yr −1 along the Danish coastline in the western Baltic Sea. Further analyses showed that fish from an established high-density round goby population were slow-growing and displayed poorer condition (weight at age and hepatosomatic index) compared to fish sampled from recently invaded locations (i.e. at the forefront of the distribution range). The established population revealed a broad age distribution and a 1:1 gender ratio, while fish from a recently invaded site were primarily of intermediate ages with a male-biased gender ratio. Otolith analyses suggested that the oldest individuals from the recently invaded area experienced superior growth conditions only in the most recent years, suggesting immigration into the area as adults. Our results suggest that intraspecific competition for food may cause continued dispersal of the species and that population demographics likely relate to invasion history.

Non-indigenous species (NIS) can impact marine biodiversity and ecosystem structure and function. Once introduced into a new region, secondary dispersal is limited by the physiology of the organism in relation to the ambient environment and by complex interactions between a suite of ecological factors such as presence of predators, competitors, and parasites. Early prediction of dispersal potential and future ‘area of impact’ is challenging, but also a great asset in taking appropriate management actions. Aerobic scope (AS) in fish has been linked to various fitness-related parameters, and may be valuable in determining dispersal potential of aquatic invasive species in novel environments. Round goby, Neogobius melanostomus, one of the most wide-ranging invasive fish species in Europe and North America, currently thrives in brackish and fresh water, but its ability to survive in high salinity waters is unknown to date. We show that AS in round goby is reduced by 30% and blood plasma osmolality increased (indicating reduced capacity for osmoregulation) at salinities approaching oceanic conditions, following slow ramping (5 PSU per week) and subsequent long-term acclimation to salinities ranging between 0 and 30 PSU (8 days at final treatment salinities before blood plasma osmolality measurements, 12–20 additional days before respirometry). Survival was also reduced at the highest salinities yet a significant proportion (61%) of the fish survived at 30 PSU. Reduced physiological performance at the highest salinities may affect growth and competitive ability under oceanic conditions, but to what extent reduced AS and osmoregulatory capacity will slow the current 30 km year-1 rate of advance of the species through the steep salinity gradient from the brackish Baltic Sea and into the oceanic North Sea remains speculative. An unintended natural experiment is in progress to test whether the rate of advance slows down. At the current rate of advance the species will reach the oceanic North Sea by 2018/2019, therefore time for taking preventative action is short.

Dickey-Collas, M., Engelhard, G. H., Rindorf, A., Raab, K., Smout, S., Aarts, G., van Deurs, M., Brunel, T., Hoff, A., Lauerburg R. A. M., Garthe, S., Haste Andersen, K., Scott, F., van Kooten, T., Beare, D., and Peck, M. A. Ecosystem-based management objectives for the North Sea: riding the forage fish rollercoaster. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71: . The North Sea provides a useful model for considering forage fish (FF) within ecosystem-based management as it has a complex assemblage of FF species. This paper is designed to encourage further debate and dialogue between stakeholders about management objectives. Changing the management of fisheries on FF will have economic consequences for all fleets in the North Sea. The predators that are vulnerable to the depletion of FF are Sandwich terns, great skua and common guillemots, and to a lesser extent, marine mammals. Comparative evaluations of management strategies are required to consider whether maintaining the reserves of prey biomass or a more integral approach of monitoring mortality rates across the trophic system is more robust under the ecosystem approach. In terms of trophic energy transfer, stability, and resilience of the ecosystem, FF should be considered as both a sized-based pool of biomass and as species components of the system by managers and modellers. Policy developers should not consider the knowledge base robust enough to embark on major projects of ecosystem engineering. Management plans appear able to maintain sustainable exploitation in the short term. Changes in the productivity of FF populations are inevitable so management should remain responsive and adaptive.

Forage fish occupy a central position in marine food‐webs worldwide by mediating the transfer of energy and organic matter from lower to higher trophic levels. The lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is one of the ecologically and economically most important forage fish species in the North‐east Atlantic, acting as a key prey for predatory fish and sea birds, as well as supporting a large commercial fishery. In this case study, we investigate the underlying factors affecting recruitment and how these in turn affect productivity of the North Sea sandeel using long‐term data and modelling. Our results demonstrate how sandeel productivity in the central North Sea (Dogger Bank) depends on a combination of external and internal regulatory factors, including fishing and climate effects, as well as density dependence and food availability of the preferred zooplankton prey (Calanus finmarchicus and Temora longicornis). Furthermore, our model scenarios suggest that while fishing largely contributed to the abrupt stock decline during the late 1990s and the following period of low biomass, a complete recovery of the stock to the highly productive levels of the early 1980s would only be possible through changes in the surrounding ecosystem, involving lower temperatures and improved feeding conditions. To that end, we stress the need for ecosystem‐based management accounting for multiple internal and external factors occurring within the broader context of the ecosystem in which forage fish species, such as sandeel, play an important and integral part.

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Long-term effects of the Horns Rev 1 offshore wind farm (OWF) on fish abundance, diversity and spatial distribution were studied. This OWF is situated on the Horns Reef sand bank in the North Sea. Surveys were conducted in September 2001, before the OWF was established in 2002, and again in September 2009, 7 yr post-establishment. The sampling surveys used a multimesh-size gillnet. The 3 most abundant species in the surveys were whiting Merlangius merlangus, dab Limanda limanda and sandeels Ammodytidae spp. Overall fish abundance increased slightly in the area where the OWF was established but declined in the control area 6 km away. None of the key fish species or functional fish groups showed signs of negative long-term effects due to the OWF. Whiting and the fish group associated with rocky habitats showed different distributions relative to the distance to the artificial reef structures introduced by the turbines. Rocky habitat fishes were most abundant close to the turbines while whiting was most abundant away from them. Species diversity was significantly higher close to the turbines. Overall, these results indicate that the artificial reef structures were large enough to attract fish species with a preference for rocky habitats, but not large enough to have adverse negative effects on species inhabiting the original sand bottom between the turbines.