This paper explores the links between oil prices and inflation in the euro area by means of a DSGE model reflecting the structure of the energy markets in the euro area and calibrated to match the data using reduced-form time series techniques. The analysis focuses on the impact on inflation (through the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and its energy component) in the short and medium run. The main conclusion is that, in the short term, changes in oil prices are of vital importance for the understanding of inflation, but that at longer horizons their impact on inflation is much more complex and depends on the initial shock. An analysis of the sources of oil price increases remains therefore a pre-requisite for a proper understanding of historical fluctuations of oil prices and the related developments in the euro area, and for drawing policy conclusions.
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Various estimation approaches have been used in recent literature to study the effect of nonlinear income taxation on labour supply. Different techniques and data sets have produced a wide range of income and substitution elasticities. In this study, we utilize register data provided by the tax authorities. This gives us good possibilities to construct detailed budget constraints for each individual in our sample. We estimate labour supply function using the piece-wise linear budget constraint approach and the differentiable budget constraint approach suggested by MaCurdy et al. (1990). Our results support the view that if one is able to mimic the actual budget set closely and if the degree of progression is high then these two methods are likely to produce similar results. Some sensitivity analysis is also carried out using alternative assumptions concerning the budget sets.
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