The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of defensive play in elite football, to identify variables associated with the direct recovery of ball possession, and to propose a model for predicting the success of defensive transitions. We analyzed 804 transitions in the final stages of the Fedération Internationale Football Association (FIFA) World Cup 2010, and investigated the following variables using univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses: duration of defensive transition, possession loss zone, position of players at the start and end of the defensive transitions, defensive organization, general defensive approach, time of the match, position of defense, zone in which the offensive transition ends, match status, and outcome of the defensive transition. We found that the defensive transitions started most frequently in the middle offensive zone (48.9%), with an organized defense set-up (98.8%), and were unsuccessful on 57.2% of occasions. The bivariate analysis showed that the variable most strongly associated with direct recovery of the possession of the ball (p = 0.018) is the area in which the ball is lost, and the multivariate analysis showed that the duration of the defensive transition can be used as a performance indicator, with transitions lasting between 0 and 15 s associated with a higher likelihood of directly recovering the ball. This work has allowed us to identify a pattern of tactical-strategic behavior with major probabilities of success in the defensive transitions. These results will be able to be used by coaches to improve the performance of their teams in this type of situation in the game.
The aim of this study was to identify variables associated with direct recovery of the ball during defensive transitions in elite soccer and to propose a model with certain guarantees of success based on a multivariate analysis in which binary logistic regression was used to explore interaction between variables. 1,722 defensive transitions were analysed in the final stages of the FIFA World Cup 2014 in Brazil and investigated the following variables: duration of defensive transition; possession loss zone; position of players at the start and end of the defensive transitions, defensive organization, general defensive approach, period of the match, position of defence line, zone in which the offensive transition ends, match status, and outcome of the defensive transition. The variables found to significantly associated with ball recovery were the area of the pitch in which the ball is lost prior to the transition (p < .05), the duration of the transition (p < .01), the position of the defence lines (p < .01), the zone in which the transition ends (p < .001) and end spatial interaction configuration (p < .001). The model that provided the best guarantees of recovering possession was characterized by a defensive transition lasting 15 seconds or less that ends in the holding midfield with the attacking team under pressure.
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