Abstract. This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution and surface flux formulas on typhoon intensity and structure simulations through the case study of the Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013). Three sets of surface flux formulas in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model were tested using grid spacings of 1, 3, and 6 km. Increased resolution and more reasonable surface flux formulas can both improve typhoon intensity simulation, but their effects on storm structures differ. A combination of a decrease in momentum transfer coefficient and an increase in enthalpy transfer coefficients has greater potential to yield a stronger storm. This positive effect of more reasonable surface flux formulas can be efficiently enhanced when the grid spacing is appropriately reduced to yield an intense and contracted eyewall structure. As the resolution increases, the eyewall becomes more upright and contracts inward. The size of updraft cores in the eyewall shrinks, and the region of downdraft increases; both updraft and downdraft become more intense. As a result, the enhanced convective cores within the eyewall are driven by more intense updrafts within a rather small fraction of the spatial area. This contraction of the eyewall is associated with an upper-level warming process, which may be partly attributed to air detrained from the intense convective cores. This resolution dependence of spatial scale of updrafts is related to the model effective resolution as determined by grid spacing.

The impact of GPS radio occultation (RO) data assimilation on severe weather predictions in East Asia is introduced and reviewed. Both the local observation operator that assimilates the retrieved refractivity as local point measurement, and the nonlocal observation operator that assimilates the integrated retrieved refractivity along a straight raypath have been utilized in WRF 3DVAR to improve the initial analysis of the model. A general evaluation of the impact of these approaches on Asian regional analysis and daily prediction is provided in this paper. In general, the GPS RO data assimilation may improve prediction of severe weather such as typhoons and Mei-yu systems when COSMIC data were available, ranging from several points in 2006 to a maximum of about 60 in 2007 and 2008 in this region. Based on a number of experiments, regional model predictions at 5 km resolution were not significantly influenced by different observation operators, although the nonlocal observation operator sometimes results in slightly better track forecast. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan. The impact of 56 GPS RO soundings on track prediction of Cyclone Gonu (2007) over the Indian Ocean is also appealing when compared to other tracks assimilated with different observations. From a successive evaluation of skill scores for real-time forecasts on Mei-yu frontal systems operationally conducted over a longer period and predictions of six typhoons in 2008, assimilation of GPS RO data appears to have some positive impact on regional weather predictions, on top of existent assimilation with all other observations.

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This study investigates heat waves in Taiwan and their maintenance mechanism, based upon observations and dynamically downscaled simulations. A 95th percentile threshold is used for identifying hot extremes over a period of consecutive days. Heat waves are forecast to become more severe in the future projection. Daily minimum temperatures are generally high and diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) are relatively large. The daily minimum temperature serves as the primary control in the variation in DTR during heat waves. An apparent increase in the daily minimum temperature suggests elevated heat stress at nighttime during future heat waves. Heat waves in Taiwan are associated with abnormal warming and drying atmospheric conditions under the control of an enhanced western North Pacific subtropical high. The surrounding waters serve as a vast moisture source to suppress the drying magnitude in the surface layer as the temperature rises, thereby ensuring a high humidity level during the hot spell. The subsidence and adiabatic warming above can trap the warm and humid air in the surface layer, leading to positive feedback to the abnormally hot surface condition. The associated warming and drying atmospheric conditions cover certain spatial extents, suggesting that the extreme situation identified here is not confined to just an island-wide hot spell; the abnormal hot weather can take place across a broad geographical area.

This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for the 2018 heatwave over SC, and both the Atlantic Low regime (AL) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were secondary contributors for the heatwave, but with different effect directions. The major contributor to the heatwave over WE was AL. These causal relationships remained valid when the evolution of warm spells was considered. A multi-model ensemble of real-time forecasts from the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) database captured the evolution of the warm spells over SC and WE up to 3 weeks in advance. However, the predictions of heatwave occurrence and significance for the two regions are unsatisfactory. BL and AL can be predicted 2 weeks in advance, resulting in the successful predictions of warm spells over SC and WE. Although variations in Azores High and NAO were captured in the forecasts, their contribution to the warm spells remains unclear.