BackgroundPrognosis research aims to identify factors associated with the course of health conditions. It is often challenging to judge the overall quality of research evidence in systematic reviews about prognosis due to the nature of the primary studies. Standards aimed at improving the quality of primary studies on the prognosis of health conditions have been created, but these standards are often not adequately followed causing confusion about how to judge the evidence.MethodsThis article presents a proposed adaptation of Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE), which was developed to rate the quality of evidence in intervention research, to judge the quality of prognostic evidence.ResultsWe propose modifications to the GRADE framework for use in prognosis research along with illustrative examples from an ongoing systematic review in the pediatric pain literature. We propose six factors that can decrease the quality of evidence (phase of investigation, study limitations, inconsistency, indirectness, imprecision, publication bias) and two factors that can increase it (moderate or large effect size, exposure-response gradient).ConclusionsWe describe criteria for evaluating the potential impact of each of these factors on the quality of evidence when conducting a review including a narrative synthesis or a meta-analysis. These recommendations require further investigation and testing.

A variety of factors may be involved in the development and course of musculoskeletal (MSK) pain. We undertook a systematic review with meta-analysis to synthesize and evaluate the quality of evidence about childhood and adolescent factors associated with onset and persistence of MSK pain, and its related disability. Studies were identified from searches of electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Web of Science), references of included studies, and the Pediatric Pain mail list. Two independent reviewers assessed study inclusion, completed data extraction, and evaluated the quality of evidence using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework. Thirty-six studies reporting on 21 cohorts were included. These studies examined 65 potential risk factors for onset of MSK pain and 43 potential prognosis factors for persistence of MSK pain. No study was identified that examined prognostic factors for MSK pain-related disability. High-quality evidence suggests that low socioeconomic status is a risk factor for onset of MSK pain in studies exploring long-term follow-up. Moderate-quality evidence suggests that negative emotional symptoms and regularly smoking in childhood or adolescence may be associated with later MSK pain. However, moderate-quality evidence also suggests that high body mass index, taller height, and having joint hypermobility are not risk factors for onset of MSK pain. We found other risk and prognostic factors explored were associated with low or very low quality of evidence. Additional well-conducted primary studies are needed to increase confidence in the available evidence, and to explore new childhood risk and prognostic factors for MSK pain.

BackgroundTheory is often recommended as a framework for guiding hypothesized mechanisms of treatment effect. However, there is limited guidance about how to use theory in intervention development.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review to provide an exemplar review evaluating the extent to which use of theory is identified and incorporated within existing interventions. We searched electronic databases PubMed, PsycINFO, CENTRAL, and EMBASE from inception to May 2014. We searched clinicaltrials.gov for registered protocols, reference lists of relevant systematic reviews and included studies, and conducted a citation search in Web of Science. We included peer-reviewed publications of interventions that referenced the social cognitive theory of self-regulation as a framework for interventions to manage chronic health conditions. Two reviewers independently assessed articles for eligibility. We contacted all authors of included studies for information detailing intervention content. We describe how often theory mechanisms were addressed by interventions, and report intervention characteristics used to address theory.ResultsOf 202 articles that reported using the social cognitive theory of self-regulation, 52% failed to incorporate self-monitoring, a main theory component, and were therefore excluded. We included 35 interventions that adequately used the theory framework. Intervention characteristics were often poorly reported in peer-reviewed publications, 21 of 35 interventions incorporated characteristics that addressed each of the main theory components. Each intervention addressed, on average, six of eight self-monitoring mechanisms, two of five self-judgement mechanisms, and one of three self-evaluation mechanisms. The self-monitoring mechanisms ‘Feedback’ and ‘Consistency’ were addressed by all interventions, whereas the self-evaluation mechanisms ‘Self-incentives’ and ‘External rewards’ were addressed by six and four interventions, respectively. The present review establishes that systematic review is a feasible method of identifying use of theory as a conceptual framework for existing interventions. We identified the social cognitive theory of self-regulation as a feasible framework to guide intervention development for chronic health conditions.