The intent of this paper is the construction of an econometric model able to produce reliable and reasonable forecasts for the US dollar/Euro real exchange rate. In order to achieve this aim, an area-wide model is analysed. The aggregation is motivated by the fact that the Euro-zone is under a single monetary policy. Furthermore, a more parsimonious parametric model enables one to consider an important source of non-stationarity given by the presence of structural breaks using the multivariate cointegration analysis. Against the Meese-Rogoff critique, the out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts using actual values of the exogenous produced by the estimated VECM are reasonably satisfactory.Real Exchange Rates, Cointegration, Structural Breaks, Area-WIDE Model, Forecasting,
. We are grateful to Walter Torous, Alessio Saretto, Ken Singleton, an anonymous referee and seminar participants at the 2nd Bachelier Finance Society (Crete), the 9th International Conference on Forecasting Financial Markets (London) and the X International Conference on Banking and Finance (Rome) for useful comments and suggestions. AbstractIn this paper we address two main issues: the computation of default probability implicit in emerging markets bond prices and the impact on portfolio risks and returns of expected changes in default probability. Using a reduced-form model, weekly estimates of default probabilities for US Dollar denominated Global bonds of twelve emerging markets are extrapolated for the sample period 1997-2001. The estimation of a logit type econometric model shows that weekly changes of the default probabilities can be explained by means of some capital markets factors. Recursively estimating the logit model using rolling windows of data, out-of-sample forecasts for the dynamics of default probabilities are generated and used to form portfolios of bonds. The practical application provides interesting results, both in terms of testing the ability of a naive trading strategy based on model forecasts to outperform a "customized benchmark", and in terms of the model ability to actively manage the portfolio risk (evaluated in terms of VaR) with respect to a constant proportion allocation. JEL Classification: G12, G15, F34, G11
. We are grateful to Walter Torous, Alessio Saretto, Ken Singleton, an anonymous referee and seminar participants at the 2nd Bachelier Finance Society (Crete), the 9th International Conference on Forecasting Financial Markets (London) and the X International Conference on Banking and Finance (Rome) for useful comments and suggestions. AbstractIn this paper we address two main issues: the computation of default probability implicit in emerging markets bond prices and the impact on portfolio risks and returns of expected changes in default probability. Using a reduced-form model, weekly estimates of default probabilities for US Dollar denominated Global bonds of twelve emerging markets are extrapolated for the sample period 1997-2001. The estimation of a logit type econometric model shows that weekly changes of the default probabilities can be explained by means of some capital markets factors. Recursively estimating the logit model using rolling windows of data, out-of-sample forecasts for the dynamics of default probabilities are generated and used to form portfolios of bonds. The practical application provides interesting results, both in terms of testing the ability of a naive trading strategy based on model forecasts to outperform a "customized benchmark", and in terms of the model ability to actively manage the portfolio risk (evaluated in terms of VaR) with respect to a constant proportion allocation. JEL Classification: G12, G15, F34, G11
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