Objectives To evaluate the possibility of predicting the risk of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia using a combination of clinical/demographic parameters. Methods A total of 462 MCI elderly patients (follow-up: 33 months). Variable measured included cognitive functions, age, gender, MCI type, education, comorbidities, clinical chemistry, and functional status. Results Amnestic type (aMCI) represented 63% of the sample, non-amnestic (naMCI) 37%; 190 subjects progressed to dementia, 49% among aMCI, and 28% among naMCI. At Cox multivariate regression analysis, only MMSE (one point increase HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.79–0.90), aMCI (HR 2.35; 95% CI 1.39–3.98), and age (1 year increase HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01–1.10) were independently associated with progression to dementia. A score was created based on these dichotomized variables (score 0–3): age (≥ or < 78 years), MMSE score (≥ or < 25/30) and aMCI type. The conversion rate progressed from 6% in subjects with score 0 (negative predictive value: 0.94), to 31% in individuals with score 1, to 53% in subjects with score 2, to 72% in individuals with score 3 (positive predictive value: 0.72). ROC curve analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.75, p 0.0001). Conclusions We have described a simple score, based on previously recognized predictors such as age, MMSE, and MCI type, which may be useful for an initial stratification of the risk of progression to dementia in patients affected by MCI. The score might help the clinicians to evaluate the need for more expansive/invasive examinations and for a closer follow-up in MCI patients.
Beta-secretase 1 (BACE1) is considered as the key enzyme in amyloidβ formation.Previous works suggest that high BACE1 activity may be present in brain, cerebrospinal fluid and serum of patients with late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) as well as mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Therefore, we evaluated whether serum BACE1 activity increases in MCI patients and is associated with the progression from MCI to dementia. BACE1 activity was measured in the serum of 259 MCI patients (162 amnestic-aMCI, 97 non-amnestic-naMCI) and 204 healthy Controls. After a median follow-up of 32 months (range: 10-153), 116 MCI progressed to dementia (87 aMCI and 29 naMCI). Serum BACE1 activity was higher in MCI compared with Controls (p < 0.001), and in aMCI with brain atrophy compared with naMCI without brain atrophy (p = 0.04). No difference in BACE1 activity emerged between converter and non-converter MCI, and this was true for both aMCI and naMCI. However, among aMCI with better cognitive performance (n. 163, MMSE score ≥24/30) those converting to dementia had higher BACE1 activity compared to stable ones (p = 0.05). This was not associated with an increased risk to develop dementia (hazard ratio: 1.65; 95% confidence interval: 0.67-4.01). In conclusion, serum BACE1 activity significantly increased in MCI patients (both amnestic and non-amnestic) compared with Controls.Moreover, higher serum BACE1 activity was observed only among aMCI with a better cognitive performance who progressed to dementia, suggesting that a dysregulation of this enzyme might be an early event primarily associated with neurodegeneration.
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