Background There is disagreement about the level of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We conducted a living systematic review and metaanalysis to address three questions: (1) Amongst people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) Amongst people with SARS-CoV-2 infection who are asymptomatic when diagnosed, what proportion will develop symptoms later? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is accounted for by people who are either asymptomatic throughout infection or presymptomatic? Methods and findings We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv using a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature that is updated daily, on 25 March 2020, 20 April 2020, and 10 June 2020. Studies of people with SARS-CoV-2 diagnosed by reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) that documented follow-up and symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up or modelling studies were included. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with an adapted checklist for case series, and the relevance and credibility of modelling studies were assessed using a published checklist. We included a total of 94 studies. The overall estimate of the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and remain asymptomatic throughout infection was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17-25) with a prediction interval of 3%-67% in 79 studies that addressed this review question. There was some evidence that biases in the selection of participants influence the estimate. In seven studies of defined populations screened for SARS-CoV-2 and then

While it is important for the evidence supporting practice guidelines to be current, that is often not the case. The advent of living systematic reviews has made the concept of "living guidelines" realistic, with the promise to provide timely, up-to-date and high-quality guidance to target users. We define living guidelines as an optimization of the guideline development process to allow updating individual recommendations as soon as new relevant evidence becomes available. A major implication of that definition is that the unit of update is the individual recommendation and not the whole guideline. We then discuss when living guidelines are appropriate, the workflows required to support them, the collaboration between living systematic reviews and living guideline teams, the thresholds for changing recommendations, and potential approaches to publication and dissemination. The success and sustainability of the concept of living guideline will depend on those of its major pillar, the living systematic review. We conclude that guideline developers should both experiment with and research the process of living guidelines.

 Review question 1. Amongst people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? Summary estimate 15% (95% confidence interval, CI 10 to 22%, prediction interval 3 to 55%, 28 studies, random effect model. Version 1, summary estimate 29% (95% confidence interval 23 to 37%, 8 studies, fixed effect model);  Review question 2. Amongst people with SARS-CoV-2 infection who are asymptomatic when diagnosed, what proportion will develop symptoms later? Fifteen studies included, no change in result;  Review question 3. What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is accounted for by people who are either asymptomatic throughout infection, or pre-symptomatic? Four studies included, no change in result; : medRxiv preprint modelling studies, 40-60% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections are the result of transmission from presymptomatic individuals, with a smaller contribution from asymptomatic individuals. CONCLUSIONAn intermediate contribution of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic infections to overall SARS-CoV-2 transmission means that combination prevention measures, with enhanced hand and respiratory hygiene, testing tracing and isolation strategies and social distancing, will continue to be needed.The findings of this living systematic review of publications early in the pandemic suggests that most SARS-CoV-2 infections are not asymptomatic throughout the course of infection. ABSTRACT Structured summary2 Provide a structured summary including, as applicable: background; objectives; data sources; study eligibility criteria, participants, and interventions; study appraisal and synthesis methods; results; limitations; conclusions and implications of key findings; systematic review registration number. 2-3

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic that originated in Wuhan, China has spread to more than 60 countries. We estimated the age-specific case fatality ratio (CFR) by fitting a transmission model to data from China, accounting for underreporting of cases and the time delay to death. Overall CFR among all infections was 1.6% (1.4-1.8%) and increased considerably for the elderly, highlighting the expected burden for populations with further expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic around the globe.

Background As of 16 May 2020, more than 4.5 million cases and more than 300,000 deaths from disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported. Reliable estimates of mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection are essential for understanding clinical prognosis, planning healthcare capacity, and epidemic forecasting. The case-fatality ratio (CFR), calculated from total numbers of reported cases and reported deaths, is the most commonly reported metric, but it can be a misleading measure of overall mortality. The objectives of this study were to (1) simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 using publicly available surveillance data and (2) infer estimates of SARS-CoV-2 mortality adjusted for biases and examine the CFR, the symptomatic case-fatality ratio (sCFR), and the infection-fatality ratio (IFR) in different geographic locations. Method and findings We developed an age-stratified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartmental model describing the dynamics of transmission and mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Our model accounts for two biases: preferential ascertainment of severe cases and right-censoring of mortality. We fitted the transmission model to surveillance data from Hubei Province, China, and applied the same model to six regions in Europe: Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Baden-Wü rttemberg (Germany), Lombardy (Italy), Spain, and Switzerland. In Hubei, the baseline estimates were as follows: CFR 2.4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.1%-2.8%), sCFR 3.7% (3.2%-4.2%), and IFR 2.9% (2.4%-3.5%). Estimated measures of mortality changed over time. Across the six locations in Europe, estimates of CFR varied widely. Estimates of sCFR and IFR, adjusted for bias, were more similar to each other but still showed some degree of heterogeneity. Estimates of IFR ranged from 0.5% (95% CrI 0.4%-0.6%

BackgroundHealth authorities in the United States and Europe reported an increasing number of travel-associated episodes of sexual transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) following the 2015–2017 ZIKV outbreak. This, and other scientific evidence, suggests that ZIKV is sexually transmissible in addition to having its primary mosquito-borne route. The objective of this systematic review and evidence synthesis was to clarify the epidemiology of sexually transmitted ZIKV.Methods and findingsWe performed a living (i.e., continually updated) systematic review of evidence published up to 15 April 2018 about sexual transmission of ZIKV and other arthropod-borne flaviviruses in humans and other animals. We defined 7 key elements of ZIKV sexual transmission for which we extracted data: (1) rectal and vaginal susceptibility to infection, (2) incubation period following sexual transmission, (3) serial interval between the onset of symptoms in a primary and secondary infected individuals, (4) duration of infectiousness, (5) reproduction number, (6) probability of transmission per sex act, and (7) transmission rate. We identified 1,227 unique publications and included 128, of which 77 presented data on humans and 51 presented data on animals. Laboratory experiments confirm that rectal and vaginal mucosae are susceptible to infection with ZIKV and that the testis serves as a reservoir for the virus in animal models. Sexual transmission was reported in 36 human couples: 34/36 of these involved male-to-female sexual transmission. The median serial symptom onset interval in 15 couples was 12 days (interquartile range: 10–14.5); the maximum was 44 days. We found evidence from 2 prospective cohorts that ZIKV RNA is present in human semen with a median duration of 34 days (95% CI: 28–41 days) and 35 days (no CI given) (low certainty of evidence, according to GRADE). Aggregated data about detection of ZIKV RNA from 37 case reports and case series indicate a median duration of detection of ZIKV of 40 days (95% CI: 30–49 days) and maximum duration of 370 days in semen. In human vaginal fluid, median duration was 14 days (95% CI: 7–20 days) and maximum duration was 37 days (very low certainty). Infectious virus in human semen was detected for a median duration of 12 days (95% CI: 1–21 days) and maximum of 69 days. Modelling studies indicate that the reproduction number is below 1 (very low certainty). Evidence was lacking to estimate the incubation period or the transmission rate. Evidence on sexual transmission of other flaviviruses was scarce. The certainty of the evidence is limited because of uncontrolled residual bias.ConclusionsThe living systematic review and sexual transmission framework allowed us to assess evidence about the risk of sexual transmission of ZIKV. ZIKV is more likely transmitted from men to women than from women to men. For other flaviviruses, evidence of sexual transmissibility is still absent. Taking into account all available data about the duration of detection of ZIKV in culture and from the serial interval, our fi...

Abstract. In order to improve the spatial resolution of current risk maps for fasciolosis in cattle, more knowledge is needed with respect to farm-level factors that determine infection risk. In this study, we visited 39 dairy farms within a predefined low-and high-risk area for fasciolosis in Belgium and assessed their infection status by an indirect bulk tank milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Management factors were collected and all pastured lands of the farms were visited to identify and georeference potential snail habitats. The habitats were visually characterised, investigated for the presence of the intermediate host snails of Fasciola hepatica (i.e.Galba truncatula and Radix spp.) and used in a geographical information system (GIS) to construct overlays including information on soil and hydrology. A linear regression model was used to evaluate associations between bulk tank milk ELISA results and farm level management and habitat factors. A logistic, mixed model was used to identify possible risk factors for the presence of intermediate host snails on a potential habitat. Potential snail habitats were found in 35 out of 39 farms. A total of 87 potential habitats were identified and on 29% of these, intermediate host snails were found. The number of potential habitats, the presence of snails, drainage of pastures, month of turnout of the cows, stocking rate, type of watering place and risk area were significantly associated with the bulk tank milk ELISA result and explained 85% of the observed variation. Intermediate host snails were more likely to be present with increasing surface of the potential habitat and on loamy soils. This study confirms the importance of farm management factors in the infection risk for F. hepatica in cattle and highlights that the combination of management factors with characterization of snail habitats is a powerful means to predict the infection risk with F. hepatica at the individual farm level. Further research is needed to investigate how this knowledge can be incorporated in nation-wide spatial distribution models of the parasite.

IntroductionZoonotic disease (ZD) pose a serious threat to human health in low-income countries. In these countries the human burden of disease is often underestimated due to insufficient monitoring because of insufficient funding. Quantification of the impact of zoonoses helps in prioritizing healthcare needs. Kyrgyzstan is a poor, mountainous country with 48% of the population employed in agriculture and one third of the population living below the poverty line.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe have assessed the burden of zoonoses in Kyrgyzstan by conducting a systematic review. We have used the collected data to estimate the burden of ZDs and addressed the underestimation in officially reported disease incidence. The estimated incidences of the ZDs were used to calculate incidence-based Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). This standardized health gap measure enhances comparability between injuries and diseases. The combined burden for alveolar echinococcosis, cystic echinococcosis, brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, congenital toxoplasmosis, non-typhoidal salmonellosis and rabies in Kyrgyzstan in 2013 was 35,209 DALYs [95% Uncertainty interval (UI):13,413–83,777]; 576 deaths [95% UI: 279–1,168] were attributed to these infections. We estimate a combined median incidence of ZDs of 141,583 cases [95% UI: 33,912–250,924] in 2013. The highest burden was caused by non-typhoidal Salmonella and Echinococcus multilocularis, respectively 14,792 DALYs [95% UI: 3,966–41,532] and 11,915 DALYs [95% UI: 4,705–27,114] per year.Conclusion/SignificanceThe health impact of zoonoses in Kyrgyzstan is substantial, comparable to that of HIV. Community-based surveillance studies and hospital-based registration of all occurrences of zoonoses would increase the accuracy of the estimates.