The purpose of this paper is to present the novel long-term energy mix optimization model eMix, which takes into account daily requirements of power system operation (primary, secondary and tertiary reserve) and how should they react to increasing RES penetration. Until now there has been no computational effective, long-term optimization model of energy mix with individual representation of power generating assets that allows for RES development incorporation and consider the daily requirement of power system operation. Existing unit commitment models, although comprehensive, are not appropriate for long-term, large-scale problems because of computational limitations. The eMix links long-term planning (investments) with shortterm requirements of power system operation reserves (primary, secondary, tertiary) provided by dispatchable units. Additionally, development of the RES introduces stronger requirements to the reserve's level in order to maintain the flexibility of the power system operation. This relation has significant impact on the final energy mix and was modeled in the eMix. The costs are calculated annually for each individual unit (given to the application of Mixed Integer Linear Programming), to reflect the real conditions of energy sector operation, where annual repayment of loans, amortization as well as operation and maintenance costs are applied. eMix is also fully scalable and allows for freely definable interval and horizon of the calculation. To prove the quality of presented model, the authors calibrated it with the data from Polish power system for different scenarios. Results indicate that the consideration of financial costs and required reserves increase the reliability of the optimization outcomes.
Polish economy is still undergoing the transformation process and seeks to converge with the most developed economies in Europe. While many economic reforms have been made, the generating sector was left to its own devices and lack of the investments caused that electricity supply in Poland is ineffective and not secure. The coal is a primary fuel and it constitutes over 80% of the energy mix. Thus, with energy mix restructuration ahead, the ambitious and balanced energy policy is highly required. The article aims to present the 2050 Energy Policy for Poland, which should facilitate the transformation of coal-based electricity generation system towards more sustainable and diversified energy mix. Comprehensive description and review of the current conditions of energy sector in Poland are accompanied with strengths and problems that need to be solved, taking into account European requirements. Additionally, in the paper the authors describe the development process of the Polish Energy Policy as they actively participated in the calculations of optimal energy mix for Poland. The manuscript presents the eMix model (energy mix optimization tool) developed by the authors, that constituted a background for Ministry of Economy to create Energy Policy. Hundreds of simulations scenarios were performed for the Ministry of Economy to provide the clear view of the electricity generation sector and to understand the impacts of all external stimuli to the mix. Assumptions for the model and results of calculations according to the policy scenarios are presented in the paper. Finally, the authors evaluate the final decisions of the policy makers, integrated in the Polish Energy Policy 2050, taking into account the challenges for the Polish power sector.
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