The aim of the paper is to assess changes in mobility in public transport in Poland, as a consequence of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyse the problem from the country and regional (voivodeships) perspective. The data come from Google COVID19 Community Mobility Reports, the Ministry of Health of Poland, and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. The research covers the period between 2 March and 19 July 2020. The obtained results show that there is negative but insignificant relationship between human mobility changes in public transport and the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Poland. The strength and statistical significance of the correlation varies substantially across voivodeships. As far as the relationship between changes in mobility in public transport and the stringency of Polish government’s anti-COVID-19 policy is concerned, the results confirm a strong, negative and significant correlation between analysed variables at the national and regional level. Moreover, based on one factor variance analysis (ANOVA) and the Tukey’s honest significance test (Tukey’s HSD test) we indicate that there are significant differences observed regarding the changes in mobility in public transport depending on the level of stringency of anti-COVID-19 regulation policy both in Poland and all voivodeships. The results might indicate that the forced lockdown to contain the development of the COVID-19 pandemic has effectively contributed to social distancing in public transport in Poland and that government restrictions, rather than a local epidemic status, induce a greater decrease in mobility.
The recent outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has made a significant impact on the global financial markets. The aim of this paper is to assess the short-term reaction of the Visegrad countries’ financial markets to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Visegrad Group is a political alliance of four Central European countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The financial assessment is based on the EUR/CZK, EUR/HUF, and EUR/PLN exchange rates and the major blue-chip stock market indices, that is Prague PX, Budapest BUX, Warsaw WIG20, and Bratislava SAX. It is evident that the ongoing pandemic has changed the expectations of the financial market participants about the future value of exchange rates in the Visegrad countries. This study indicates that, as a consequence of COVID-19, higher probability has been attached to the large depreciation of the Czech koruna (CZK), the Hungarian forint (HUF), and the Polish zloty (PLN) than to their large appreciation. Moreover, based on the TGARCH model, the positive and significant correlation between the number of reported COVID-19 cases and the exchange rates has been confirmed, implying that the ongoing pandemic has resulted in the depreciation of the Visegrad currencies. Additionally, the result of the TGARCH model reveals that there is a significant and negative link between the Visegrad stock market indices and the COVID-19 spread.
The outbreak and rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the global financial markets, including the energy sector. Alternative energy belongs to the economy’s key sectors concerning environmental issues and seems to be a full-fledged alternative for fossil-based conventional energy. This paper aims to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the stock market indices related to the alternative and conventional energy sector. We use daily data on the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Global Alternative Energy Index, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) Energy Index, and self-developed Average-49 COVID-19 New Cases Index and Average-49 Stringency Index. The research covers the period January–October 2020. The average level of the MSCI Global Alternative Energy Index in COVID-19 year was more than a quarter higher than in 2019 while the MSCI ACWI Energy fell almost one-third in the same period. Based on the Markov-switching model, we show that both the MSCI Global Alternative Energy and the MSCI ACWI Energy are not significantly affected by the epidemic status. The analysed indices decline as the government anti-COVID-19 policy becomes more stringent, but the relationship is statistically significant only in the high-volatility regime. In comparison to the conventional energy index, we reveal that the alternative energy index stays most of its time in the low-volatility regime without being adversely and significantly affected by the COVID-19 related indicators. Our study shows that the alternative energy sector, represented by the MSCI Global Alternative Energy Index, seems to be more resistant to COVID-19 than the conventional energy sector. It might imply that the novel coronavirus pandemic has not depreciated but emphasised the growing concern about climate change and environmental pollution.
The paper aims to identify groups of countries characterised by a similar human mobility reaction to COVID-19 and investigate whether the differences between distinguished clusters result from the stringency of government anti-COVID-19 policy or are linked to another macroeconomic factor. We study how COVID-19 affects human mobility patterns, employing daily data of 124 countries. The analysis is conducted for the first and second waves of the novel coronavirus pandemic separately. We group the countries into four clusters in terms of stringency level of government anti-COVID-19 policy and six mobility categories, using k-means clustering. Moreover, by applying the Kruskal–Wallis test and Wilcoxon rank-sum pairwise comparison test, we assess the existence of significant differences between the distinguished clusters. We confirm that the pandemic has caused significant human mobility changes. The study shows that a more stringent anti-COVID-19 policy is related to the greater decline in mobility. Moreover, we reveal that COVID-19-driven mobility changes are also triggered by other factors not related to the pandemic. We find the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components as driving factors of the magnitude of mobility changes during COVID-19. The greater human mobility reaction to COVID-19 refers to the country groups representing higher HDI levels.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the global financial markets, including energy commodities. The aim of the paper is to examine the reaction of the energy commodity market to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly the epidemic status, the stringency of the government anti-COVID-19 policy, and the stock market volatility. We use daily data on the S&P GSCI Energy index, the number of new confirmed COVID-19 global cases, the self-developed Global Stringency Index, and the VIX index. The research covers the period from January 2 to September 30, 2020, i.e. the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on a structural vector autoregressive model we observe a significant and negative energy commodity market's reaction to the changes in the stock market volatility. Moreover, the results imply that the increase in the Global Stringency Index leads to the decline in the S&P GSCI Energy index but the reaction is significant only on the third day after the shock. We reveal no significant impact of global epidemic status on energy commodity prices.
Securitization of the agricultural commodity market has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, particularly in the times of financial market uncertainty and crisis. Sugar belongs to the group of important agricultural commodities. The global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a substantial increase in the stock market volatility. Moreover, the novel coronavirus hit both the sugar market’s supply and demand side, resulting in sugar stock changes. The paper aims to assess potential structural changes in the relationship between sugar prices and the financial market uncertainty in a crisis time. In more detail, using sequential Bai–Perron tests for structural breaks, we check whether the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have induced structural breaks in that relationship. Sugar prices are represented by the S&P GSCI Sugar Index, while the S&P 500 option-implied volatility index (VIX) is used to show stock market uncertainty. To investigate the changes in the relationship between sugar prices and stock market uncertainty, a regression model with a sequential Bai–Perron test for structural breaks is applied for the daily data from 2000–2020. We reveal the existence of two structural breaks in the analysed relationship. The first breakpoint was linked to the global financial crisis outbreak, and the second occurred in December 2011. Surprisingly, the COVID-19 pandemic has not induced the statistically significant structural change. Based on the regression model with Bai–Perron structural changes, we show that from 2000 until the beginning of the global financial crisis, the relationship between the sugar prices and the financial market uncertainty was insignificant. The global financial crisis led to a structural change in the relationship. Since August 2008, we observe a significant and negative relationship between the S&P GSCI Sugar Index and the S&P 500 option-implied volatility index (VIX). Sensitivity analysis conducted for the different financial market uncertainty measures, i.e., the S&P 500 Realized Volatility Index confirms our findings.
The paper aims to detect the differences in stock market performance between companies from the alternative energy sector and main stock market sectors in the first and second years of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used Global Industry Classification Standard to analyse eleven main stock market sectors and the alternative energy sector. Based on the one-factor variance analysis—ANOVA, we reveal the statistically significant differences between the analysed stock market sectors in both 2020 and 2021. The analysis implied that the performance of stock market companies during COVID-19 is sector-specific. Tukey’s Honestly Significant Difference (HSD) test for pairwise comparison indicates that the alternative energy sector shows the most differentiation. Its average rate of return in 2020 is the highest and is significantly different for all eleven stock market sectors, while the top constituents from the conventional energy and financial sectors suffered the most. In 2021, a reverse trend in the stock prices can be observed. Companies from the conventional energy and financial sectors achieved the highest positive average weekly rates of return among all of the analysed stock market sectors, while the alternative energy sector performed significantly worse than the other sectors did. Nevertheless, throughout the entire analyses period of 2020–2021, the companies from the alternative energy sector turned out to be the biggest stock market beneficiaries. This study might imply that the COVID-19 pandemic has not hampered but has instead accelerated growing concerns about the environment and climate change.
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