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Objectives To measure the impact on the dengue vector population (Aedes aegypti) and disease transmission of window curtains and water container covers treated with insecticide. Design Cluster randomised controlled trial based on entomological surveys and, for Trujillo only, serological survey. In addition, each site had a non-randomised external control. Setting 18 urban sectors in Veracruz (Mexico) and 18 in Trujillo (Venezuela). Participants 4743 inhabitants (1095 houses) in Veracruz and 5306 inhabitants (1122 houses) in Trujillo. Intervention Sectors were paired according to entomological indices, and one sector in each pair was randomly allocated to receive treatment. In Veracruz, the intervention comprised curtains treated with lambdacyhalothrin and water treatment with pyriproxyfen chips (an insect growth regulator). In Trujillo, the intervention comprised curtains treated with longlasting deltamethrin (PermaNet) plus water jar covers of the same material. Follow-up surveys were conducted at intervals, with the final survey after 12 months in Veracruz and nine months in Trujillo. Main outcome measures Reduction in entomological indices, specifically the Breteau and house indices. Results In both study sites, indices at the end of the trial were significantly lower than those at baseline, though with no significant differences between control and intervention arms. The mean Breteau index dropped from 60% (intervention clusters) and 113% (control) to 7% (intervention) and 12% (control) in Veracruz and from 38% to 11% (intervention) and from 34% to 17% (control) in Trujillo. The pupae per person and container indices showed similar patterns. In contrast, in nearby communities not in the trial the entomological indices followed the rainfall pattern. The intervention reduced mosquito populations in neighbouring control clusters (spill-over effect); and houses closer to treated houses were less likely to have infestations than those further away. This created a community effect whereby mosquito numbers were reduced throughout the study site. The observed effects were probably associated with the use of materials treated with insecticide at both sites because in Veracruz, people did not accept and use the pyriproxyfen chips. Conclusion Window curtains and domestic water container covers treated with insecticide can reduce densities of dengue vectors to low levels and potentially affect dengue transmission.

Background:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenges hospital leaders to make time-sensitive, critical decisions about clinical operations and resource allocations.Objective: To estimate the timing of surges in clinical demand and the best-and worst-case scenarios of local COVID-19induced strain on hospital capacity, and thus inform clinical operations and staffing demands and identify when hospital capacity would be saturated.Design: Monte Carlo simulation instantiation of a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) model with a 1-day cycle.Setting: 3 hospitals in an academic health system. Patients:All people living in the greater Philadelphia region. Measurements:The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model (CHIME) (http://penn-chime.phl.io) SIR model was used to estimate the time from 23 March 2020 until hospital capacity would probably be exceeded, and the intensity of the surge, including for intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators.Results: Using patients with COVID-19 alone, CHIME estimated that it would be 31 to 53 days before demand exceeds existing hospital capacity. In best-and worst-case scenarios of surges in the number of patients with COVID-19, the needed total capacity for hospital beds would reach 3131 to 12 650 across the 3 hospitals, including 338 to 1608 ICU beds and 118 to 599 ventilators.Limitations: Model parameters were taken directly or derived from published data across heterogeneous populations and practice environments and from the health system's historical data. CHIME does not incorporate more transition states to model infection severity, social networks to model transmission dynamics, or geographic information to account for spatial patterns of human interaction. Conclusion:Publicly available and designed for hospital operations leaders, this modeling tool can inform preparations for capacity strain during the early days of a pandemic.

Simple interventions may facilitate vector control and prevent periurban transmission of Chagas disease.

Summary Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector’s thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain persistent gaps in understanding of vital rates and drivers in mosquito-vectored disease systems, and vast holes in understanding for other arthropod vectored diseases. Empirical studies are needed to better understand the physiological constraints and socio-ecological processes that generate heterogeneity in critical transmission parameters, including vector survival and fitness. Likewise, laboratory experiments and transmission models must evaluate vector response to realistic field conditions, including variability in sociological and environmental conditions.

BackgroundChagas disease control campaigns relying upon residual insecticide spraying have been successful in many Southern American countries. However, in some areas, rapid reinfestation and recrudescence of transmission have occurred.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey in the Bolivian Chaco to evaluate prevalence of and risk factors for T. cruzi infection 11 years after two rounds of blanket insecticide application. We used a cubic B-spline model to estimate change in force of infection over time based on age-specific seroprevalence data. Overall T. cruzi seroprevalence was 51.7%. The prevalence was 19.8% among children 2–15, 72.7% among those 15–30 and 97.1% among participants older than 30 years. Based on the model, the estimated annual force of infection was 4.3% over the two years before the first blanket spray in 2000 and fell to 0.4% for 2001–2002. The estimated annual force of infection for 2004–2005, the 2 year period following the second blanket spray, was 4.6%. However, the 95% bootstrap confidence intervals overlap for all of these estimates. In a multivariable model, only sleeping in a structure with cracks in the walls (aOR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.15–4.78), age and village of residence were associated with infection.Conclusions/SignificanceAs in other areas in the Chaco, we found an extremely high prevalence of Chagas disease. Despite evidence that blanket insecticide application in 2000 may have decreased the force of infection, active transmission is ongoing. Continued spraying vigilance, infestation surveillance, and systematic household improvements are necessary to disrupt and sustain interruption of infection transmission.

BackgroundCanine rabies was reintroduced to the city of Arequipa, Peru in March 2015. The Ministry of Health has conducted a series of mass dog vaccination campaigns to contain the outbreak, but canine rabies virus transmission continues in Arequipa’s complex urban environment, putting the city’s 1 million inhabitants at risk of infection. The proximate driver of canine rabies in Arequipa is low dog vaccination coverage. Our objectives were to qualitatively assess barriers to and facilitators of rabies vaccination during mass campaigns, and to explore strategies to increase participation in future efforts.Methodology/Principal findingsWe conducted 8 focus groups (FG) in urban and peri-urban communities of Mariano Melgar district; each FG included both sexes, and campaign participants and non-participants. All FG were transcribed and then coded independently by two coders. Results were summarized using the Social Ecological Model. At the individual level, participants described not knowing enough about rabies and vaccination campaigns, mistrusting the campaign, and being unable to handle their dogs, particularly in peri-urban vs. urban areas. At the interpersonal level, we detected some social pressure to vaccinate dogs, as well as some disparaging of those who invest time and money in pet dogs. At the organizational level, participants found the campaign information to be insufficient and ill-timed, and campaign locations and personnel inadequate. At the community level, the influence of landscape and topography on accessibility to vaccination points was reported differently between participants from the urban and peri-urban areas. Poor security and impermanent housing materials in the peri-urban areas also drives higher prevalence of guard dog ownership for home protection; these dogs usually roam freely on the streets and are more difficult to handle and bring to the vaccination points.ConclusionsA well-designed communication campaign could improve knowledge about canine rabies. Timely messages on where and when vaccination is occurring could increase dog owners’ perception of their own ability to bring their dogs to the vaccination points and be part of the campaign. Small changes in the implementation of the campaign at the vaccination points could increase the public’s trust and motivation. Location of vaccination points should take into account landscape and community concerns.

Chagas disease affects 8-11 million people throughout the Americas. Early detection is crucial for timely treatment and to prevent non-vectorial transmission. Recombinant antigen-based rapid tests had high sensitivity and specificity in laboratory evaluations, but no Peruvian specimens were included in previous studies. We evaluated Stat-Pak and Trypanosoma Detect rapid tests in specimens from Bolivia and Peru. Specimens positive by three conventional assays were confirmed positives; specimens negative by two or more assays were confirmed negatives. In Bolivian specimens, Stat-Pak and Trypanosoma Detect tests were 87.5% and 90.7% sensitive, respectively; both showed 100% specificity. Sensitivity in Peruvian specimens was much lower: 26.6-33.0% (Stat-Pak) and 54.3-55.2% (Trypanosoma Detect); both had specificities > 98%. Even in Bolivian specimens, these sensitivities are inadequate for stand-alone screening. The low sensitivity in Peru may be related to parasite strain differences. Chagas disease rapid tests should be field tested in each geographic site before widespread implementation for screening.