One major objective of the St. Vincent Declaration was to reduce excess risk of stroke in people with diabetes mellitus. The aim of this study is to estimate the trend of incidence and relative risk of stroke in the diabetic and the non-diabetic populations in Germany over a 17-year period. We estimated age–sex standardised incidence rates of all stroke and ischaemic stroke in people with and without diabetes based on an ongoing prospective community-based stroke register covering 105,000 inhabitants. Time trends were analysed using Poisson regression. In total, 3,111 individuals (diabetes: 28.4%, men 46.9%, mean age 73.1 years (SD 13.2)) had a first stroke, 84.9% of which were ischaemic stroke. Among people with diabetes we observed a significant reduction in all stroke incidence by 1.5% per year (relative risk: 0.985; 95% confidence interval 0.972–0.9995) Likewise, this incidence tended to decrease for ischaemic stroke by 1% per year (0.993; 0.979–1.008). In contrast, the incidence rate for all stroke remained nearly stable among people without diabetes (1.003; 0.993–1.013) and for ischaemic stroke (1.002; 0.991–1.013). The relative risk comparing diabetic and non-diabetic population decreased for all stroke (two percent annual reduction) but not for ischaemic stroke. Time trends were similar for both sexes regarding all and ischaemic strokes. We found a reduction in risk of stroke in the diabetic population while this rate did not materially change in the non-diabetic population.

Background and Purpose: Data on long-term survival and recurrence after stroke are lacking. We investigated time trends in ischemic stroke case-fatality and recurrence rates over 20-years stratified by etiological subtype according to the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification within a population-based stroke register in Germany. Methods: Data was collected within the Erlangen Stroke Project, a prospective, population-based stroke register covering a source population of 105 164 inhabitants (2010). Case fatality and recurrence rates for 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years were estimated with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Sex-specific time trends for case-fatality and recurrence rates were estimated with Cox regression. We adjusted for age, sex, and year of event and stratified for etiological subtypes. A sensitivity analysis with competing risk analysis for time trends in recurrence were performed. Results: Between 1996 and 2015, 3346 patients with first ischemic stroke were included; age-standardized incidence per 100 000 was 75.8 in women and 131.6 in men (2015). Overall, 5-year survival probabilities were 50.4% (95% CI, 47.9–53.1) in women and 59.2% (95% CI, 56.4–62.0) in men; 5-year survival was highest in patients with first stroke due to small-artery occlusion (women, 71.8% [95% CI, 67.1–76.9]; men, 75.9% [95% CI, 71.3–80.9]) and lowest in cardioembolic stroke (women, 35.7% [95% CI, 31.0–41.1]; men, 47.8% [95% CI, 42.2–54.3]). Five-year recurrence rates were 20.1% (95% CI, 17.5–22.6) in women and 20.1% (95% CI, 17.5–22.7) in men; 5-year recurrence rate was lowest in women in stroke due to small artery occlusion 16.0% (95% CI, 11.7–20.1) and in men in large-artery atherosclerosis 16.6% (95% CI, 8.7–23.9); highest risk of recurrence was observed in undefined strokes (women, 22.3% [95% CI, 17.8–26.6]; men, 21.4% [95% CI, 16.7–25.9]). Cox regression revealed improvements in case-fatality rates over time with differences in stroke causes. No time trends in recurrence rates were observed. Conclusions: Long-term survival and recurrence varied substantially by first stroke cause. Survival probabilities improved over the past 2 decades; no major trends in stroke recurrence rates were observed.

Background: Population-based data, which continuously monitorstime trends in stroke epidemiology are limited. We investigated the incidence of pathological and etiological stroke subtypes over a 16 year time period. Methods: Data were collected within the Erlangen Stroke Project (ESPro), a prospective, population-based stroke register in Germany covering a total study population of 105,164 inhabitants (2010). Etiology of ischemic stroke was classified according to the Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) criteria. Results: Between January 1995 and December 2010, 3,243 patients with first-ever stroke were documented. The median age was 75 and 55% were females. The total stroke incidence decreased over the 16 year study period in men (Incidence Rate Ratio 1995-1996 vs. 2009-2010 (IRR) 0.78; 95% CI 0.58-0.90) but not in women. Among stroke subtypes, a decrease in ischemic stroke incidence (IRR 0.73; 95% CI 0.57-0.93) and of large artery atherosclerotic stroke (IRR 0.27; 95% CI 0.12-0.59) was found in men and an increase of stroke due to small artery occlusion in women (IRR 2.33; 95% CI 1.39-3.90). Conclusions: Variations in time trends of pathological and etiological stroke subtypes were found between men and women that might be linked to gender differences in the development of major vascular risk factors in the study population.

Background and Purpose: 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 1 (11β-HSD1) regulates tissue-specific glucocorticoid metabolism, and its impaired expression and activity is associated with major diseases. Pharmacological inhibition of 11β-HSD1 is considered a promising therapeutic strategy. This study investigated whether alternative 7-oxo bile acid substrates of 11β-HSD1 or the ratios to their 7-hydroxy products can serve as biomarkers for decreased enzymatic activity. Experimental Approach: Bile acid profiles were measured by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem-mass spectrometry in plasma and liver tissue samples of four different mouse models with decreased 11β-HSD1 activity: global (11KO) and liver-specific 11β-HSD1 knockout mice (11LKO), mice lacking hexose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (H6pdKO) that provides cofactor NADPH for 11β-HSD1, and mice treated with the pharmacological inhibitor carbenoxolone (CBX). Additionally, 11β-HSD1 expression and activity were assessed in H6pdKO and CBX treated mice. Key Results: The enzyme product to substrate ratios were more reliable markers of 11β-HSD1 activity than absolute levels due to large inter-individual variations in bile acid concentrations. The ratio of the 7β-hydroxylated ursodeoxycholyltaurine (UDC-Tau) to 7oxolithocholyltaurine (7oxoLC-Tau) was diminished in plasma and liver tissue of all four mouse models, and decreased in H6pdKO and CBX treated mice with moderately reduced 11β-HSD1 activity. The persistence of 11β-HSD1 oxoreduction activity in the face of H6PD loss indicates the existence of an alternative NADPH source in the endoplasmic reticulum. Conclusions and Implications: The plasma UDC-Tau/7oxo-LC-Tau ratio detects decreased 11β-HSD1 oxoreduction activity in different mouse models. This ratio may be a useful biomarker of decreased 11β-HSD1 activity in patho-physiological situations or upon pharmacological inhibition.

BACKGROUND: There have been multiple efforts toward individual prediction of recurrent strokes based on structured clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms. Some of these efforts resulted in relatively accurate prediction models. However, acquiring clinical and imaging data is typically possible at provider sites only and is associated with additional costs. Therefore, we developed recurrent stroke prediction models based solely on data easily obtained from the patient at home. METHODS: Data from 384 patients with ischemic stroke were obtained from the Erlangen Stroke Registry. Patients were followed at 3 and 12 months after first stroke and then annually, for about 2 years on average. Multiple machine learning algorithms were applied to train predictive models for estimating individual risk of recurrent stroke within 1 year. Double nested cross-validation was utilized for conservative performance estimation and models’ learning capabilities were assessed by learning curves. Predicted probabilities were calibrated, and relative variable importance was assessed using explainable artificial intelligence techniques. RESULTS: The best model achieved the area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64–0.76) and relatively good probability calibration. The most predictive factors included patient’s family and housing circumstances, rehabilitative measures, age, high calorie diet, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, percutaneous endoscopic gastrotomy, number of family doctor’s home visits, and patient’s mental state. CONCLUSIONS: Developing fairly accurate models for individual risk prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year solely based on registry data is feasible. Such models could be applied in a home setting to provide an initial risk assessment and identify high-risk patients early.