Effective modeling of electronic health records (EHR) is rapidly becoming an important topic in both academia and industry. A recent study showed that using the graphical structure underlying EHR data (e.g. relationship between diagnoses and treatments) improves the performance of prediction tasks such as heart failure prediction. However, EHR data do not always contain complete structure information. Moreover, when it comes to claims data, structure information is completely unavailable to begin with. Under such circumstances, can we still do better than just treating EHR data as a flat-structured bag-of-features? In this paper, we study the possibility of jointly learning the hidden structure of EHR while performing supervised prediction tasks on EHR data. Specifically, we discuss that Transformer is a suitable basis model to learn the hidden EHR structure, and propose Graph Convolutional Transformer, which uses data statistics to guide the structure learning process. The proposed model consistently outperformed previous approaches empirically, on both synthetic data and publicly available EHR data, for various prediction tasks such as graph reconstruction and readmission prediction, indicating that it can serve as an effective general-purpose representation learning algorithm for EHR data.
In medicine, both ethical and monetary costs of incorrect predictions can be significant, and the complexity of the problems often necessitates increasingly complex models. Recent work has shown that changing just the random seed is enough for otherwise well-tuned deep neural networks to vary in their individual predicted probabilities. In light of this, we investigate the role of model uncertainty methods in the medical domain. Using recurrent neural network (RNN) ensembles and various Bayesian RNNs, we show that population-level metrics, such as AUC-PR, AUC-ROC, log-likelihood, and calibration error, do not capture model uncertainty. Meanwhile, the presence of significant variability in patient-specific predictions and optimal decisions motivates the need for capturing model uncertainty. Understanding the uncertainty for individual patients is an area with clear clinical impact, such as determining when a model decision is likely to be brittle. We further show that RNNs with only Bayesian embeddings can be a more efficient way to capture model uncertainty compared to ensembles, and we analyze how model uncertainty is impacted across individual input features and patient subgroups. * Work done as a Google AI Resident.
High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ability to compare techniques for improving these estimates is therefore very important for research and practice alike. Yet, competitive comparisons of methods are often lacking due to a range of reasons, including: compute availability for extensive tuning, incorporation of sufficiently many baselines, and concrete documentation for reproducibility. In this paper we introduce Uncertainty Baselines: high-quality implementations of standard and state-ofthe-art deep learning methods on a variety of tasks. As of this writing, the collection spans 19 methods across 9 tasks, each with at least 5 metrics. Each baseline is a self-contained experiment pipeline with easily reusable and extendable components. Our goal is to provide immediate starting points for experimentation with new methods or applications. Additionally we provide model checkpoints, experiment outputs as Python notebooks, and leaderboards for comparing results. https://github.com/google/uncertainty-baselines
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases, and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks. We present an international, prospective evaluation of our models’ performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. Nationally, incident mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths during prospective deployment remained consistently <8% (US) and <29% (Japan), while cumulative MAPE remained <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and are robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.
The rising need for custom machine learning (ML) algorithms and the growing data sizes that require the exploitation of distributed, data-parallel frameworks such as MapReduce or Spark, pose significant productivity challenges to data scientists. Apache SystemML addresses these challenges through declarative ML by (1) increasing the productivity of data scientists as they are able to express custom algorithms in a familiar domain-specific language covering linear algebra primitives and statistical functions, and (2) transparently running these ML algorithms on distributed, data-parallel frameworks by applying cost-based compilation techniques to generate efficient, low-level execution plans with in-memory single-node and large-scale distributed operations. This paper describes SystemML on Apache Spark, end to end, including insights into various optimizer and runtime techniques as well as performance characteristics. We also share lessons learned from porting SystemML to Spark and declarative ML in general. Finally, SystemML is open-source, which allows the database community to leverage it as a testbed for further research.
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