Recent exchanges in the literature on the identification and role of key sectors in national and regional economies have highlighted the difficulties of consensus regarding terminology, appropriate measurement as well as economic interpretation. In this paper, some new perspectives are advanced which provide a more comprehensive view of an economy and offer the potential for uncovering alternative perspectives about the role of linkages and multipliers in input-output and expanded social accounting systems. The analysis draws on some pioneering work by Miyazawa in the identification of internal and external multiplier effects. The theoretical techniques are illustrated by reference to a set of input-output tables for the Brazilian economy. The paper thus provides a more comprehensive view than the ones proposed by Baer, Fonseca, and Guilhoto (1987), Hewings, Fonseca, Guilhoto, and and the recent contributions of Clements and Rossi (1991, 1992) that draw on some earlier work of Cella (1984).
The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975-2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.
Recent exchanges in the literature on the identification and role of key sectors in national and regional economies have highlighted the difficulties of consensus regarding terminology, appropriate measurement as well as economic interpretation. In this paper, some new perspectives are advanced which provide a more comprehensive view of an economy and offer the potential for uncovering alternative perspectives about the role of linkages and multipliers in input-output and expanded social accounting systems. The analysis draws on some pioneering work by Miyazawa in the identification of internal and external multiplier effects. The theoretical techniques are illustrated by reference to a set of input-output tables for the Brazilian economy. The paper thus provides a more comprehensive view than the ones proposed by Baer, Fonseca, and Guilhoto (1987), Hewings, Fonseca, Guilhoto, and and the recent contributions of Clements and Rossi (1991, 1992) that draw on some earlier work of Cella (1984).
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