The ice arches that usually develop at the northern and southern ends of Nares Strait play an important role in modulating the export of Arctic Ocean multi-year sea ice. The Arctic Ocean is evolving towards an ice pack that is younger, thinner, and more mobile and the fate of its multi-year ice is becoming of increasing interest. Here, we use sea ice motion retrievals from Sentinel-1 imagery to report on the recent behavior of these ice arches and the associated ice fluxes. We show that the duration of arch formation has decreased over the past 20 years, while the ice area and volume fluxes along Nares Strait have both increased. These results suggest that a transition is underway towards a state where the formation of these arches will become atypical with a concomitant increase in the export of multi-year ice accelerating the transition towards a younger and thinner Arctic ice pack.
Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed -50×103 km2 yr−1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr−1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995–2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent.
Abstract. Local-scale variations in snow density and layering on Arctic sea ice were characterized using a combination of traditional snow pit and SnowMicroPen (SMP) measurements. In total, 14 sites were evaluated within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Arctic Ocean on both first-year (FYI) and multi-year (MYI) sea ice. Sites contained multiple snow pits with coincident SMP profiles as well as unidirectional SMP transects. An existing SMP density model was recalibrated using manual density cutter measurements (n=186) to identify best-fit parameters for the observed conditions. Cross-validation of the revised SMP model showed errors comparable to the expected baseline for manual density measurements (RMSE = 34 kg m−3 or 10.9 %) and strong retrieval skill (R2=0.78). The density model was then applied to SMP transect measurements to characterize variations at spatial scales of up to 100 m. A supervised classification trained on snow pit stratigraphy allowed separation of the SMP density estimates by layer type. The resulting dataset contains 58 882 layer-classified estimates of snow density on sea ice representing 147 m of vertical variation and equivalent to more than 600 individual snow pits. An average bulk density of 310 kg m−3 was estimated with clear separation between FYI and MYI environments. Lower densities on MYI (277 kg m−3) corresponded with increased depth hoar composition (49.2 %), in strong contrast to composition of the thin FYI snowpack (19.8 %). Spatial auto-correlation analysis showed layered composition on FYI snowpack to persist over long distances while composition on MYI rapidly decorrelated at distances less than 16 m. Application of the SMP profiles to determine propagation bias in radar altimetry showed the potential errors of 0.5 cm when climatology is used over known snow density.
Ice arches in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) block the inflow of Arctic Ocean ice for the majority of the year. A 22 year record (1997–2018) of Arctic Ocean‐CAA ice exchange was used to investigate the effect of warming on CAA sea ice dynamics. Larger ice area flux values were associated with longer flow duration and faster ice speed facilitated by increased open water leeway from the CAA's transition to a younger and thinner ice regime, which together have contributed to a significant ice area flux increase (103 km2/year) from Arctic Ocean into the northern CAA from 1997 to 2018. Remarkably, the 2016 Arctic Ocean ice area flux into the CAA (161 × 103 km2) was 7 times greater than the 1997–2018 average (23 × 103 km2) and almost double the 2007 ice area flux into Nares Strait (87 × 103 km2). Continued warming may result in the CAA becoming a larger outlet for Arctic Ocean ice area loss.
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