Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The economic geography literature distinguishes between two types of reasons for economic agglomeration. Regional concentration of economic activity can be attributed to "Þrst nature" meaning geographic advantages and disadvantages given by nature or to "second nature" meaning agglomeration economies by the interaction of economic agents. Several recent studies tried to estimate the relative importance of the two types of explanantion. Most of these studies seem to exaggerate the importance of natural advantages because of loose deÞnitions of geography. We describe geography by a small set of non-economic variables and estimate their importance for agglomeration in Germany. We Þnd that about one third of the agglomeration of economic activity can be attributed to geography. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may
Abstract:This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the influence of outside-lab information completely. Consequently, backward-looking behavior can be identified unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation. 1 We thank James C. Cox, Robert Sugden, Dennis Snower, Daniel Zizzo, and seminar participants in Atlanta, Berlin, Kiel, Innsbruck, and Norwich for helpful comments. We are also grateful to an anonymous referee who helped improving the paper. Any remaining weaknesses are of course ours. AbstractThis paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast in ‡ation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in di¤erent treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the in ‡uence of outside-lab information completely.Consequently, backward-looking behavior can be identi…ed unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation.
No abstract
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