The pediatrician makes a judgment of the degree of illness (toxicity) of a febrile child based on observation prior to history and physical examination. In order to define valid and reliable observation data for that judgment, data from two previous studies were used to construct three-point scales of 14 observation items correlated with serious illness in those reports. Between Nov 1, 1980 and March 1, 1981, these 14 scaled items were scored simultaneously by attending physicians, residents, and nurses prior to history and physical examination on 312 febrile children aged ≤24 months seen consecutively in our Primary Care Center-Emergency Room and in one private practice. Of these 312 children, 37 had serious illness. Multiple regression analysis based on patients seen by at least one attending physician in the Primary Care Center revealed six items (quality of cry, reaction to parents, state variation, color, state of hydration, and response to social overtures) that were significant and independent predictors of serious illness (multiple R = 0.63). The observed agreement for scoring these six items between two attending physicians who saw one third of the patients ranged from 88% to 97%. The chance corrected agreement levels (κw) for these six items were, with one exception, clinically significant (κw = .47 to .73). A discriminant function analysis revealed that these six items when used together had a specificity of 88% and a sensitivity of 77% for serious illness. Individual scores for each of the six key items were added to yield a total score for each patient. Only 2.7% of patients with a score ≤10 had a serious illness; 92.3% with a score ≥l6 had a serious illness. The sensitivity of the six-item model for serious illness when combined with history and physical examination was 92%. In the population studied, this predictive model, when used prior to history and physical examination, was reliable, predictive, specific, and sensitive for serious illness in febnile children. It was most sensitive when combined with history and physical examination. The model wifi need to be validated on a new population of patients.
The experienced clinician makes a judgment (hereafter called overall assessment [OA]) about the degree of illness of a febrile child prior to physical examination. In order to define the history and observation variables on which OA is based, 262 febrile children ≤24 months of age were evaluated simultaneously by multiple observers including attending pediatricians, practicing pediatricians, pediatric house officers, and nurses. The observer listed history and observation variables he/she thought most important in making an OA on a blank, lined form and then scored those variables and OA as normal, or mildly, moderately, or severely impaired. Scoring for observation rather than history variables was better correlated with scoring for OA and serious illness. The observation variables most frequently mentioned by all observers were the child's "looking at the observer" and "looking around the room." There were 20 observation variables frequently mentioned, the scoring of which significantly correlated with scoring for OA; four of these 20 variables related to eye function. The child's response to a stimulus was noted in 105/186 different observation variables listed; both the attending pediatrician and the house officer scored these stimulus-response variables significantly different in children with, vs those without, serious illnesses. For attending pediatricians, house officers, and nurses, serious illness was five to seven times as likely if an OA of moderate or severe impairment was made than if it were not made. OA is a key skill in evaluating febrile children; these data identify variables on which OA is based, document the importance of assessing eye function in young, febrile children, and demonstrate that eye function is one key type of stimulus-response behavior on which the pediatrician as clinician and developmentalist relies to make judgments about febrile children.
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