This paper presents the results of a study to quantify the performance of Weather Avoidance Fields in predicting the operational impact of convective weather on en route airspace. The Convective Weather Avoidance Model identifies regions of convective weather that pilots are likely to avoid based upon an examination of the planned and actual flight trajectories in regions of weather impact. From this model and a forecast of convective weather from the Corridor Integrated Weather System a probabilistic Weather Avoidance Field can be provided to automated decision support systems of the future impact of weather on the air traffic control system. This paper will present three alternative spatial filters for the Convective Weather Avoidance Model, quantify their performance, address deficiencies in performance, and suggest potential improvements by looking at the ATC environment and common situational awareness between the cockpit and air traffic control.
This paper describes wake vortex field measurements conducted during August, 1995 at Memphis, TN. The objective of this effort was to record wake vortex behavior for varying atmospheric conditions and aircraft types. Wake vortex behavior was observed using a mobile continuous-wave (CW) coherent laser Doppler radar (lidar) developed at Lincoln Laboratory. This lidar features a number of improvements over previous systems, including the first-ever demonstration of an automatic wake vortex detection and tracking algorithm. An extensive meteorological data collection system was deployed in support of the wake vortex measurements, including a 150' instrumented tower, wind profiler/ RASS (radio acoustic sounding system), sodar and balloon soundings. Aircraft flight plan and beacon data were automatically collected to determine aircraft flight number, type, speed and descent rate. Additional data was received from airlines in post-processing to determine aircraft weight and model. Over 600 aircraft wakes were recorded over the one-month period during 29 traffic pushes. Preliminary results from the field measurement program are presented illustrating differences in wake vortex behavior depending on atmospheric conditions and aircraft type.
The effective management of traffic flows during convective weather events in congested air space requires decision support tools that can translate weather information into anticipated air traffic operational impact. In recent years, MIT Lincoln Laboratory has been maturing the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) to correlate pilot behavior in the enroute airspace with observable weather parameters from convective weather forecast systems. This paper evaluates the adaptation of the CWAM to terminal airspace with a focus on arrival decision making. The model is trained on data from five days of terminal convective weather impacts. The performance of the model is evaluated on an independent dataset consisting of six days of convective weather over a variety of terminal areas. Model performance in different terminal areas is discussed and the sensitivity of prediction accuracy to weather forecast horizon is presented.
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