The theory of exchange rate target zones focuses on the role of exchange rate expectations in determining exchange rate behaviour and interest rate differentials in currency bands. This paper analyses earlier models of the target zone research programme as well as more recent developments including endogenous realignment expectations, price rigidities and alternative monetary feedback rules by means of a unified approach. Target zones may be the cause of stabilizing or destabilizing exchange rate expectations, the determinants of which crucially depend on the within-band central bank policy as well as the credibility of the central banks' commitment to defend the target zone. The paper closes with a discussion of the relative merits of implementing a target zone and some suggestions for further research.
The paper analyses the international correlations of the European national stock markets and identifies the potential excess returns which can be reaped by means of international diversification in the emerging European stock market relative to a strategy of purely national diversification both before and after EMU comes into effect. To facilitate a comparison of the pre- and post-EMU effects of international diversification, we construct an EMU index-portfolio as an average of the national stock market indices weighted by the respective national market capitalizations. The performance of the national indices is then compared to the EMU index-portfolio with and without an explicit incorporation of FX volatility. It is found that the excess returns of holding an efficiently diversified European stock market portfolio are positive throughout, with the highest potential for excess returns for Austria, Finland and Italy. However, the results generally indicate that the gains of international diversification are more substantial in the presence of FX volatility. Nevertheless, the national betas are also generally higher when exchange rate variability is accounted for, indicating that the elimination of FX volatility in the wake of EMU is likely to lower to cost of equity in national stock markets.
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