1. Riparian vegetation composition, structure and abundance are governed to a large degree by river flow regime and flow-mediated fluvial processes. Streamflow regime exerts selective pressures on riparian vegetation, resulting in adaptations (trait syndromes) to specific flow attributes. Widespread modification of flow regimes by humans has resulted in extensive alteration of riparian vegetation communities. Some of the negative effects of altered flow regimes on vegetation may be reversed by restoring components of the natural flow regime. 2. Models have been developed that quantitatively relate components of the flow regime to attributes of riparian vegetation at the individual, population and community levels. Predictive models range from simple statistical relationships, to more complex stochastic matrix population models and dynamic simulation models. Of the dozens of predictive models reviewed here, most treat one or a few species, have many simplifying assumptions such as stable channel form, and do not specify the time-scale of response. In many cases, these models are very effective in developing alternative streamflow management plans for specific river reaches or segments but are not directly transferable to other rivers or other regions. 3. A primary goal in riparian ecology is to develop general frameworks for prediction of vegetation response to changing environmental conditions. The development of riparian vegetation-flow response guilds offers a framework for transferring information from rivers where flow standards have been developed to maintain desirable vegetation attributes, to rivers with little or no existing information. 4. We propose to organise riparian plants into non-phylogenetic groupings of species with shared traits that are related to components of hydrologic regime: life history, reproductive strategy, morphology, adaptations to fluvial disturbance and adaptations to water availability. Plants from any river or region may be grouped into these guilds and related to hydrologic attributes of a specific class of river using probabilistic response curves. 5. Probabilistic models based on riparian response guilds enable prediction of the likelihood of change in each of the response guilds given projected changes in flow, and facilitate examination of trade-offs and risks associated with various flow management strategies. Riparian response guilds can be decomposed to the species level for individual projects or used to develop flow management guidelines for regional water management plans.

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The intense demand for river water in arid regions is resulting in widespread changes in riparian vegetation. We present a direct gradient method to predict the vegetation change resulting from a proposed upstream dam or diversion. Our method begins with the definition of vegetative cover types, based on a census of the existing vegetation in a set of 1 ° 2 m plots. A hydraulic model determines the discharge necessary to inundate each plot. We use the hydrologic record, as defined by a flow duration curve, to determine the inundation duration for each plot. This allows us to position cover types along a gradient of inundation duration. A change in river management results in a new flow duration curve, which is used to redistribute the cover types among the plots. Changes in vegetation are expressed in terms of the area occupied by each cover type. We applied this approach to riparian vegetation of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Monument along the Gunnison River in Colorado. We used TWINSPAN to cluster plots according to species occurrence. This analysis defined three vegetative cover types that were distinct in terms of inundation duration. Quantitative changes in the extent of cover types were estimated for three hypothetical flow regimes: two diversion alternatives with different minimum flows and a moving average modification of historical flows. Our results suggest that (1) it is possible to cause substantial changes in riparian vegetation without changing mean annual flow, and (2) riparian vegetation is especially sensitive to changes in minimum and maximum flows. Principal advantages of this method are simplicity and reliance on relatively standard elements of plant community ecology and hydrologic engineering. Limitations include use of a single environmental gradient, restrictive assumptions about changes in channel geometry, representation of vegetation as quasi—equilibrium cover types, and the need for model validation.

/ Human demands for surface and shallow alluvial groundwater have contributed to the loss, fragmentation, and simplification of riparian ecosystems. Populus species typically dominate riparian ecosystems throughout arid and semiarid regions of North American and efforts to minimize loss of riparian Populus requires an integrated understanding of the role of surface and groundwater dynamics in the establishment of new, and maintenance of existing, stands. In a controlled, whole-stand field experiment, we quantified responses of Populus morphology, growth, and mortality to water stress resulting from sustained water table decline following in-channel sand mining along an ephemeral sandbed stream in eastern Colorado, USA. We measured live crown volume, radial stem growth, annual branch increment, and mortality of 689 live Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera stems over four years in conjunction with localized water table declines. Measurements began one year prior to mining and included trees in both affected and unaffected areas. Populus demonstrated a threshold response to water table declines in medium alluvial sands; sustained declines >/=1 m produced leaf desiccation and branch dieback within three weeks and significant declines in live crown volume, stem growth, and 88% mortality over a three-year period. Declines in live crown volume proved to be a significant leading indicator of mortality in the following year. A logistic regression of tree survival probability against the prior year's live crown volume was significant (-2 log likelihood = 270, chi2 with 1 df = 232, P < 0.0001) and trees with absolute declines in live crown volume of >/=30 during one year had survival probabilities <0.5 in the following year. In contrast, more gradual water table declines of thick similar0.5 m had no measurable effect on mortality, stem growth, or live crown volume and produced significant declines only in annual branch growth increments. Developing quantitative information on the timing and extent of morphological responses and mortality of Populus to the rate, depth, and duration of water table declines can assist in the design of management prescriptions to minimize impacts of alluvial groundwater depletion on existing riparian Populus forests.

Concern about spread of non-native riparian trees in the western USA has led to Congressional proposals to accelerate control efforts. Debate over these proposals is frustrated by limited knowledge of nonnative species distribution and abundance. We measured abundance of 44 riparian woody plants at 475 randomly selected stream gaging stations in 17 western states. Our sample indicates that Tamarix ramosissima and Elaeagnus angustifolia are already the third and fourth most frequently occurring woody riparian plants in the region. Although many species of Tamarix have been reported in the region, T. ramosissima (here including T. chinensis and hybrids) is by far the most abundant. The frequency of occurrence of T. ramosissima has a strong positive relation with the mean annual minimum temperature, which is consistent with hypothesized frost sensitivity. In contrast the frequency of occurrence of E. angustifolia decreases with increasing minimum temperatures. Based on mean normalized cover, T. ramosissima and E. angustifolia are the second and fifth most dominant woody riparian species in the western USA. The dominance of T. ramosissima has been suspected for decades; the regional ascendance of E. angustifolia, however, has not previously been reported.