Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.

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Abstract. Ecologists need a common language of plant traits in order to make comparisons across regions and scales, pool data, and maximize the utility of the data. To develop such a set of traits we began with the primary challenges faced by plants: dispersal, establishment, and persistence in order to identify fundamental traits. Most of these traits are hard to measure, but advances in comparative ecology have suggested a number of easy to measure analogs. Unfortunately, some of the fundamental traits have no simple analog. The common core list includes: seed mass, seed shape, dispersal mode, clonality, specific leaf area, leaf water content, height, above‐ground biomass, life history, onset of flowering, stem density, and resprouting ability. Most of the traits can be measured quantitatively, but several traits on the list must still be measured qualitatively due to logistical problems or lack of an easy analog. Key problem areas include: dispersal ability, capacity for vegetative spread, germination, palatability, plasticity, and all the various below‐ground traits. Comparative studies need to address these problem areas. The common core list is suggested as a common starting point for studies of functional ecology. The idiosyncrasies of regional floras and specific research agendas will dictate which traits can be ignored and those that need to be added.

[1] Field studies in watershed hydrology continue to characterize and catalogue the enormous heterogeneity and complexity of rainfall runoff processes in more and more watersheds, in different hydroclimatic regimes, and at different scales. Nevertheless, the ability to generalize these findings to ungauged regions remains out of reach. In spite of their apparent physical basis and complexity, the current generation of detailed models is process weak. Their representations of the internal states and process dynamics are still at odds with many experimental findings. In order to make continued progress in watershed hydrology and to bring greater coherence to the science, we need to move beyond the status quo of having to explicitly characterize or prescribe landscape heterogeneity in our (highly calibrated) models and in this way reproduce process complexity and instead explore the set of organizing principles that might underlie the heterogeneity and complexity. This commentary addresses a number of related new avenues for research in watershed science, including the use of comparative analysis, classification, optimality principles, and network theory, all with the intent of defining, understanding, and predicting watershed function and enunciating important watershed functional traits.

[1] Evaporative demand, measured by pan evaporation, has declined in many regions over the last several decades. It is important to understand why. Here we use a generic physical model based on mass and energy balances to attribute pan evaporation changes to changes in radiation, temperature, humidity and wind speed. We tested the approach at 41 Australian sites for the period 1975 -2004. Changes in temperature and humidity regimes were generally too small to impact pan evaporation rates. The observed decreases in pan evaporation were mostly due to decreasing wind speed with some regional contributions from decreasing solar irradiance. Decreasing wind speeds of similar magnitude has been reported in the United States, China, the Tibetan Plateau and elsewhere. The pan evaporation record is invaluable in unraveling the aerodynamic and radiative drivers of the hydrologic cycle, and the attribution approach described here can be used for that purpose. Citation: Roderick, M. L., L.

[1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the "CO 2 fertilization" effect-the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO 2 levels-is yet to be established. The direct CO 2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO 2 led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO 2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant land surface process. Citation: Donohue, R. J., M. L. Roderick, T. R. McVicar, and G. D. Farquhar (2013), Impact of CO 2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40,[3031][3032][3033][3034][3035]

[1] We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (E o = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, E o , and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070-2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (±30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (±80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO 2 ], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability.

The volume of shade within vegetation canopies is reduced by more than an order of magnitude on cloudy and/or very hazy days compared to clear sunny days because of an increase in the diffuse fraction of the solar radiance. Here we show that vegetation is directly sensitive to changes in the diffuse fraction and we conclude that the productivity and structure of vegetation is strongly influenced by clouds and other atmospheric particles. We also propose that the unexpected decline in atmospheric [CO] which was observed following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption was in part caused by increased vegetation uptake following an anomalous enhancement of the diffuse fraction by volcanic aerosols that would have reduced the volume of shade within vegetation canopies. These results have important implications for both understanding and modelling the productivity and structure of terrestrial vegetation as well as the global carbon cycle and the climate system.