We use the ∼110‐km long Bilila‐Mtakataka fault in the amagmatic southern East African Rift, Malawi, to investigate the controls on early‐rift geometry at the scale of a major border fault. Morphological variations along the 14 ± 8‐m high scarp define six 10‐ to 40‐km long segments, which are either foliation parallel or oblique to both foliation and the current regional extension direction. As the scarp is neither consistently parallel to foliation nor well oriented for the current regional extension direction, we suggest that the segmented surface expression is related to the local reactivation of well‐oriented weak shallow fabrics above a broadly continuous structure at depth. Using a geometrical model, the geometry of the best fitting subsurface structure is consistent with the local strain field from recent seismicity. In conclusion, within this early‐rift, preexisting weaknesses only locally control border fault geometry at subsurface.
In regions with large, mature fault systems, a characteristic earthquake model may be more appropriate for modelling earthquake occurrence than extrapolating from a short history of small, instrumentally observed earthquakes using the Gutenberg-Richter scaling law. We illustrate how the geomorphology and geodesy of the Malawi Rift, a region with large seismogenic thicknesses, long fault scarps, and slow strain rates, can be used to assess hazard probability levels for large infrequent earthquakes. We estimate potential earthquake size using fault length and recurrence intervals from plate motion velocities and generate a synthetic catalogue of events. Since it is not possible to determine from the geomorphological information if a future rupture will be continuous (7.4 B M W B 8.3 with recurrence intervals of 1,000-4,300 years) or segmented (6.7 B M W B 7.7 with 300-1,900 years), we consider both alternatives separately and also produce a mixed catalogue. We carry out a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to produce regional-and site-specific hazard estimates. At all return periods and vibration periods, inclusion of fault-derived parameters increases the predicted spectral acceleration above the level predicted from the instrumental catalogue alone, with the most significant changes being in close proximity to the fault systems and the effect being more significant at longer vibration periods. Importantly, the results indicate that standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods using short instrumental records alone tend to underestimate the seismic hazard, especially for the most damaging, extreme magnitude events. For many developing countries in Africa and elsewhere, which are experiencing
Abstract. Along-strike variation in scarp morphology reflects differences in a fault's geomorphic and structural development and can thus indicate fault rupture history and mechanical segmentation. Parameters that define scarp morphology (height, width, slope) are typically measured or calculated manually. The time-consuming manual approach reduces the density and objectivity of measurements and can lead to oversight of small-scale morphological variations that occur at a resolution impractical to capture. Furthermore, inconsistencies in the manual approach may also lead to unknown discrepancies and uncertainties between, and also within, individual fault scarp studies. Here, we aim to improve the efficiency, transparency and uniformity of calculating scarp morphological parameters by developing a semi-automated Scarp PARameTer Algorithm (SPARTA). We compare our findings against a traditional, manual analysis and assess the performance of the algorithm using a range of digital elevation model (DEM) resolutions. We then apply our new algorithm to a 12 m resolution TanDEM-X DEM for four southern Malawi fault scarps, located at the southern end of the East African Rift system: the Bilila–Mtakataka fault (BMF) and three previously unreported scarps – Thyolo, Muona and Malombe. All but Muona exhibit first-order structural segmentation at their surface. By using a 5 m resolution DEM derived from high-resolution (50 cm pixel−1) Pleiades stereo-satellite imagery for the Bilila–Mtakataka fault scarp, we quantify secondary structural segmentation. Our scarp height calculations from all four fault scarps suggest that if each scarp was formed by a single, complete rupture, the slip–length ratio for each earthquake exceeds the maximum typical value observed in historical normal faulting earthquakes around the world. The high slip–length ratios therefore imply that the Malawi fault scarps likely formed in multiple earthquakes. The scarp height distribution implies the structural segments of both the BMF and Thyolo fault have merged via rupture of discrete faults (hard links) through several earthquake cycles, and the segments of the Malombe fault have connected via distributed deformation zones (soft links). For all faults studied here, the length of earthquake ruptures may therefore exceed the length of each segment. Thus, our findings shed new light on the seismic hazard in southern Malawi, indicating evidence for a number of large (Mw 7–8) prehistoric earthquakes, as well as providing a new semi-automated methodology (SPARTA) for calculating scarp morphological parameters, which can be used on other fault scarps to infer structural development.
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