Activity schedules are an important input for travel demand models. This paper presents a model to generate activity schedules for one week. The approach, called actiTopp, is based on the concept of utility-based regression models and stepwise modeling. In contrast to most of the existing models, actiTopp covers the time period of one week. Few models have covered one week; thus, the activity generation approach of this simulation period is rare. Analysis of weekly activity behavior shows stability between different days (e.g., working durations). Hence, the model explicitly takes these aspects into account, for example, by defining time budgets to spread durations within the week. For model estimation, the study used data from the German Mobility Panel (MOP). This annual survey collects representative data on the travel behavior of the German population. The data from 2004–2013 provide more than 17,500 activity schedules for one week, with more than 450,000 activities. Selected results are shown for the model application to 2014 MOP data, which the study used for validation purposes. The mean value of activities per person and week show a difference of 0.3 activity. To evaluate the model, the study used Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests with a significance level of α = 0.001. For the activity type distribution of the 2014 sample, the analysis could not reject the null hypothesis of equality of the distribution of the model and the survey data at this significance level.
We present a methodology to extract points of interest (POIs) data from OpenStreetMap (OSM) for application in travel demand models. We use custom taglists to identify and assign POI elements to typical activities used in travel demand models. We then compare the extracted OSM data with official sources and point out that the OSM data quality depends on the type of POI and that it generally matches the quality of official sources. It can therefore be used in travel demand models. However, we recommend that plausibility checks should be done to ensure a certain quality. Further, we present a methodology for calculating attractiveness measures for typical activities from single POIs and national trip generation guidelines. We show that the quality of these calculated measures is good enough for them to be used in travel demand models. Using our approach, therefore, allows the quick, automated, and flexible generation of attractiveness measures for travel demand models.
The use of private cars in Germany has not yet been analyzed from a longitudinal perspective: most travel surveys consider only a single day. Daily car usage is not identical over a given period because car owners use their vehicles for daily routines (e.g., commuting) as well as for infrequent events, such as holiday trips. Another problem of short-period surveys is that they underestimate the share of cars used for long-distance travel. The current work may help to improve the reliability and realism of statements about the extent to which German cars could be replaced by electric vehicles. The authors developed a hybrid modeling approach that aims to obtain car mileage per day for a full year. This approach is based on empirical data with different granularities. Input data are derived from the annually conducted German Mobility Panel, including a survey of fuel consumption and odometer readings, and the long-distance travel survey INVERMO. The study showed that 13.1% of the modeled German private car fleet never exceeded 100 km/day during a full year. Furthermore, cars were driven more than 100 km on 13.3 days/year on average. Mainly used cars (first cars) of a household were used for longer distances rather than second cars. A comparison of average mobility figures from the model approach with the Mobility in Germany national travel survey showed the model results as reliable and realistic.
The diffusion of new modes of transportation, such as carsharing and electric vehicles, makes it necessary to consider them along with traditional modes in travel demand modeling. However, there are two main challenges for transportation modelers. First, the new modes’ low share of usage leads to a lack of reliable revealed preference data for model estimation. Stated preference survey data are a promising and well-established approach to close this gap. Second, the state-of-the-art model approaches are sometimes stretched to their limits in large-scale applications. This research developed a combined destination and mode choice model to consider these new modes in the agent-based travel demand model mobiTopp. Mixed revealed and stated preference data were used, and new modes (carsharing, bikesharing, and electric bicycles) were added to the mode choice set. This paper presents both challenges of the modeling process, mainly caused by large-scale application, and the results of the new combined model, which are as good as those of the former sequential model although it also takes the new modes into consideration.
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