Accurately predicting lifetime of complex systems like lithium-ion batteries is crucial for accelerating technology development. However, diverse aging 1 mechanisms, significant device variability, and varied operating conditions have remained major challenges. To study this problem, we generated a dataset consisting of 124 commercial lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite cells cycled under fast charging conditions. The cells exhibited widely varied cycle lives spanning from 150 to 2,300 cycles, with end-of-life defined as 20% degradation from nominal capacity. Using discharge voltage curves from early cycles yet to exhibit capacity degradation, we apply machine learning tools to predict cycle life with less than 15% error on average, which is improved to ~8% error by incorporating additional data. Our work represents a significant improvement over previous predictions that generally required data corresponding to >5% capacity degradation, without needing specialized diagnostics. Additionally, it highlights the promise of combining data generation with data-driven modeling to predict the behavior of complex and variable systems. Main Lithium-ion batteries are deployed in a wide range of applications due to their low and falling costs, high energy densities, and long cycle lives. 1-3 However, as is the case with many chemical, mechanical, and electronics systems, long battery cycle life implies delayed feedback of performance during development and manufacture, often many months to years. Accurately predicting cycle life using early-cycle data would accelerate this feedback loop as well as enable estimation of battery life expectancy for use in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and second-life applications. 4-6

Extended Data Fig. 5 | Mean and standard deviation of the CLO-estimated predicted distribution over cycle lives after round 4. In this two-dimensional representation, mean estimated cycle life (colour scale) and standard deviation of cycle life (marker size) after round 4 are presented as a function of CC1, CC2 and CC3 (the x axis, y axis and panels a-f, respectively). Panels a-f represent CC3 = 3.6C, 4.0C, 4.4C, 4.8C, 5.2C, 5.6C and 6.0C, respectively. CC4 is represented by the contour lines. Note that the protocols with the highest cycle lives generally have the smallest standard deviations, since these protocols have been tested repeatedly.

A new reagent for the deprotection of aromatic methyl ethers, 2-(diethylamino)ethanethiol, is reported. This compound, commercially available as its HCl salt, affords the corresponding phenols in good to excellent yields on a wide variety of substrates. A clear advantage of this method over the use of more common thiols, such as ethanethiol, is the easy extraction of both the deprotecting reagent and the byproduct 2-(diethylamino)ethyl methyl sulfide into the aqueous phase by quenching with dilute acid, which allows an essentially odorless workup.

A scalable method for the preparation of oxindole 8, a key intermediate en route to a serine palmitoyl transferase inhibitor, compound 1, is presented. A three-step, chromatography-free route has been designed that takes advantage of Buchwald’s palladium-catalyzed C–H functionalization to cyclize an α-chloroacetanilide to form the five-membered ring. This process has been successfully carried out in our kilogram laboratory facility on 10-kg scale in 76% yield.

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