The existence of an upstream (eastward) group velocity for African easterly waves (AEWs) is shown based on single-point lag regressions using gridded reanalysis data from 1990 to 2010. The eastward energy dispersion is consistent with the direction of ageostrophic geopotential flux vectors. A local eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget reveals that, early in the life cycle of AEWs, growth rate due to geopotential flux convergence exceeds baroclinic and barotropic growth rates. Later in the life cycle, EKE decay due to geopotential flux divergence cancels or exceeds baroclinic and barotropic growth. A potential vorticity (PV) budget is used to diagnose tendencies related to group propagation. Although both upstream and downstream group speeds are possible because of the reversal in the mean meridional PV gradient, upstream propagation associated with the positive poleward PV gradient dominates wave packet evolution. Analogous to the concept of downstream development of midlatitude baroclinic waves, new AEWs develop preferentially upstream of the older ones, thus providing a mechanism for seeding new waves. It is suggested that these results are also relevant to AEW intermittency and storm-track structure.

Although monsoon depressions are a principal synoptic-scale element of the South Asian monsoon, producing extreme rainfall over India and surrounding regions, there exists no widely accepted mechanism explaining their occurrence. This study presents a hierarchy of numerical experiments aimed at finding such an explanation. Using a perturbation-basic state decomposition, we derive an anelastic system of equations that can represent disturbances growing in the complex, three-dimensional monsoon basic state. We find that modal solutions to these equations linearized about this basic state can explain many features of observed monsoon depressions, including their warm-over-cold core structure, westward propagation, and lower-tropospheric wind maximum. For the zonally symmetric case, these modes are barotropically unstable, drawing energy from the meridional shear of the monsoon trough. For the zonally varying basic state, modal solutions still derive energy from barotropic conversion, but fail to achieve positive net growth rates when dissipative processes are included. For the nonlinear equation set, these modes can be excited by a heating impulse, and their energy then remains roughly constant over several days as barotropic energy transfers oppose dissipative losses. Our results support the idea that the general concept of barotropic instability can explain the structure, propagation, and geographic distribution of monsoon depressions, but not their rapid growth rates. We speculate that condensational heating coupled to these waves is needed to obtain a positive growth rate.

This study makes the case that monsoon depressions over South Asia can form from a variant of moist barotropic instability. Using an idealized numerical framework in which the atmosphere is partitioned into a basic state and a perturbation, we simulate vortices resembling monsoon depressions that draw energy from the meridional shear of the monsoon trough and amplify when they interact with precipitating ascent. The influence of the basic state vertical shear on the vortex induces upward velocity, which couples precipitation with a Rossby-wave-like mode arising from dry barotropic growth, allowing the vortex to intensify. Sensitivity experiments reveal that both the sheared basic state and latent heating are necessary to achieve positive growth rates and that this process requires a sufficiently large initial perturbation. Trajectory analyses suggest that the combined flow of the vortex and the large-scale monsoon transport diabatically generated potential vorticity from southwest of the vortex into the vortex center, thus enabling growth. In contrast with tropical cyclones, this mechanism does not require a feedback between surface wind speed and surface heat and moisture fluxes, though this feedback does ultimately result in a slightly stronger vortex. K E Y W O R D Sbarotropic instability, idealized numerical modeling, Indian Monsoon, monsoon depression, monsoon low-pressure system Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2019;145:2666-2684.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/qj