Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage 1 than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects 2 . Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave 3 , but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain 4,5 . Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (6100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT 54.185310 12 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique 4-6 of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations 7 based on the effects of nuclear weapons-almost always used with this technique-overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates 5,6 near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques 8,9 . This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes. for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on indirect illumination measured from video records. The brightness is an average derived from indirect scattered sky brightness from six videos proximal to the airburst, corrected for the sensor gamma setting, autogain, range and airmass extinction, following the procedure used for other airburst light curves generated from video 24,25 . The light curve has been normalized using the US government sensor data peak brightness value of 2.7 3 10 13 W sr 21, corresponding to an absolute astronomical magnitude of 228 in the silicon bandpass. The individual video light curves deviate by less than one magnitude between times 22 and 11.5 with larger deviations outside this interval. Time zero corresponds to 03:20:32.2 UTC on 15 February 2013. b, The energy deposition per unit height for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on video data. The conversion to absolute energy deposition per unit path length assumes a blackbody emission of 6,000 K and bolometric efficiency of 17%, the same as the assumptions used to convert earlier US government sensor information to energy 26 . The heights are computed us...
The lowermost section of a Vulcanian or Plinian volcanic eruption column may be thought of as a momentum‐driven, turbulent, free‐shear jet flow. We propose that large‐amplitude and long‐duration infrasonic (<20 Hz) signals recorded at ranges of tens of kilometers during powerful eruptions at Mount St. Helens, USA, and Tungurahua, Ecuador, represent a low frequency form of jet noise. A preliminary test of this hypothesis is made by comparing the observed infrasonic spectra to the empirically‐derived similarity spectra for pure‐air jets. Although the spectral shapes are in approximate agreement, the observed volcanic signals have additional complexities not present in the pure‐air laboratory data. These features may result from multiphase flow containing solid particles and liquid droplets, very high temperatures, and perhaps complex crater morphology. However, the overall similarity between the volcanic signals and jet noise indicates that broadband infrasound measurements at volcanoes may provide a quantitative link to eruption jet dynamics, and would aid substantially in the remote assessment of volcanic hazard.
Summary Sources such as atmospheric or buried explosions and shallow earthquakes are known to produce infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere Because of the coupling between neutral particles and electrons at ionospheric altitudes, these acoustic and gravity waves induce variations of the ionospheric electron density. The Global Positioning System (GPS) provides a way of directly measuring the total electron content in the ionosphere and, therefore, of detecting such perturbations in the upper atmosphere. In July and August 1996, three large surface mine blasts (1.5 Kt each) were detonated at the Black Thunder coal mine in eastern Wyoming. As part of a seismic and acoustic monitoring experiment, we deployed five dual‐frequency GPS receivers at distances ranging from 50 to 200 km from the mine and were able to detect the ionospheric perturbation caused by the blasts. The perturbation starts 10 to 15 min after the blast, lasts for about 30 min, and propagates with an apparent horizontal velocity of 1200 m s− 1. Its amplitude reaches 3 × 1014 el m− 2 in the 7–3 min period band, a value close to the ionospheric perturbation caused by the M=6.7 Northridge earthquake (Calais & Minster 1995). The small signal‐to‐noise ratio of the perturbation can be improved by slant‐stacking the electron content time‐series recorded by the different GPS receivers taking into account the horizontal propagation of the perturbation. The energy of the perturbation is concentrated in the 200 to 300 s period band, a result consistent with previous observations and numerical model predictions. The 300 s band probably corresponds to gravity modes and shorter periods to acoustic modes, respectively. Using a 1‐D stratified velocity model of the atmosphere we show that linear acoustic ray tracing fits arrival times at all GPS receivers. We interpret the perturbation as a direct acoustic wave caused by the explosion itself. This study shows that even relatively small subsurface events can produce ionospheric perturbations that are above the detection threshold of the GPS technique. By sensing derivative signals, which can be detected over a relatively broad region, it appears that GPS might be particularly useful for source characterization within the first acoustic quiet zone where infrasound would probably be ineffective. This suggests that dual‐frequency GPS monitoring could contribute to Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty verification.
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