Many populations of long‐distance migrants are declining and there is increasing evidence that declines may be caused by factors operating outside the breeding season. Among the four vulture species breeding in the western Palaearctic, the species showing the steepest population decline, the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus, is a long‐distance migrant wintering in Africa. However, the flyways and wintering areas of the species are only known for some populations, and without knowledge of where mortality occurs, effective conservation management is not possible. We tracked 19 juvenile Egyptian Vultures from the declining breeding population on the Balkan Peninsula between 2010 and 2014 to estimate survival and identify important migratory routes and wintering areas for this species. Mortality during the first autumn migration was high (monthly survival probability 0.75) but mortality during migration was exclusively associated with suboptimal navigation. All birds from western breeding areas and three birds from central and eastern breeding areas attempted to fly south over the Mediterranean Sea, but only one in 10 birds survived this route, probably due to stronger tailwind. All eight birds using the migratory route via Turkey and the Middle East successfully completed their first autumn migration. Of 14 individual and environmental variables examined to explain why juvenile birds did or did not successfully complete their first migration, the natal origin of the bird was the most influential. We speculate that in a declining population with fewer experienced adults, an increasing proportion of juvenile birds are forced to migrate without conspecific guidance, leading to high mortality as a consequence of following sub‐optimal migratory routes. Juvenile Egyptian Vultures wintered across a vast range of the Sahel and eastern Africa, and had large movement ranges with core use areas at intermediate elevations in savannah, cropland or desert. Two birds were shot in Africa, where several significant threats exist for vultures at continental scales. Given the broad distribution of the birds and threats, effective conservation in Africa will be challenging and will require long‐term investment. We recommend that in the short term, more efficient conservation could target narrow migration corridors in southern Turkey and the Middle East, and known congregation sites in African wintering areas.
SummaryThe Egyptian Vulture has been classified as ‘Endangered’ due to a rapid population decline in India and long term declines in Europe and Africa. Although the species has been reported to be declining in Eastern Europe, no quantitative assessment of the magnitude or the causes for population declines are available. We used monitoring data from the Balkan Peninsula to estimate changes in population size and extent of occurrence of Egyptian Vultures between 1980 and 2013. We quantified population trends in three countries (Bulgaria, Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic [FYR] of Macedonia) to assess whether population declines are similar within the Balkan range states. We found a rapid and consistent decline of the Egyptian Vulture population that was largely similar among the three countries (λ = 0.940 in FYR of Macedonia, 0.951 in Bulgaria, 0.920 in Greece). As a consequence of population declines, the breeding range of Egyptian Vultures has contracted and the population in the Balkan Peninsula has fragmented into six subpopulations separated by more than 80 km. Population declines may be driven by factors such as poisoning, electrocution, direct persecution and changes in food availability which operate at large spatial scales and affect birds both on breeding grounds as well as during migration and wintering. Because the relative importance of threats to the survival of Egyptian Vultures are poorly understood, there is a critical need for research into causes of mortality and potential conservation actions that may halt and reverse population declines.
Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA1) and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA2). Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km/year towards the north (5% Northeast, 45% North, and 40% Northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km/year. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to “climate debt. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.