Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.

Understanding how fungal communities are affected by precipitation is an essential aspect of predicting soil functional responses to future climate change and the consequences of those responses for the soil carbon cycle. We tracked fungal abundance, fungal community composition, and soil carbon across 4 years in long-term field manipulations of rainfall in northern California. Fungi responded directly to rainfall levels, with more abundant, diverse, and consistent communities predominating under drought conditions, and less abundant, less diverse, and more variable communities emerging during wetter periods and in rain-addition treatments. Soil carbon storage itself did not vary with rainfall amendments, but increased decomposition rates foreshadow longer-term losses of soil carbon under conditions of extended seasonal rainfall. The repeated recovery of fungal diversity and abundance during periodic drought events suggests that species with a wide range of environmental tolerances coexist in this community, consistent with a storage effect in soil fungi. Increased diversity during dry periods further suggests that drought stress moderates competition among fungal taxa. Based on the responses observed here, we suggest that there may be a relationship between the timescale at which soil microbial communities experience natural environmental fluctuations and their ability to respond to future environmental change.

Plants in the Mediterranean climate region of California typically experience summer drought conditions, but correlations between zones of frequent coastal fog inundation and certain species' distributions suggest that water inputs from fog may influence species composition in coastal habitats. We sampled the stable H and O isotope ratios of water in non-photosynthetic plant tissue from a variety of perennial grass species and soil in four sites in northern California in order to determine the proportion of water deriving from winter rains and fog during the summer. The relationship between H and O stable isotopes from our sample sites fell to the right of the local meteoric water line (LMWL) during the summer drought, providing evidence that evaporation of water from the soil had taken place prior to the uptake of water by vegetation. We developed a novel method to infer the isotope values of water before it was subjected to evaporation in which we used experimental data to calculate the slope of the deltaH versus deltaO line versus the LMWL. After accounting for evaporation, we then used a two-source mixing model to evaluate plant usage of fog water. The model indicated that 28-66% of the water taken up by plants via roots during the summer drought came from fog rather than residual soil water from winter rain. Fog use decreased as distance from the coast increased, and there were significant differences among species in the use of fog. Rather than consistent differences in fog use by species whose distributions are limited to the coast versus those with broader distributions, species responded individualistically to summer fog. We conclude that fogwater inputs can mitigate the summer drought in coastal California for many species, likely giving an advantage to species that can use it over species that cannot.