Background: In the assessment of severity in community acquired pneumonia (CAP), the modified British Thoracic Society (mBTS) rule identifies patients with severe pneumonia but not patients who might be suitable for home management. A multicentre study was conducted to derive and validate a practical severity assessment model for stratifying adults hospitalised with CAP into different management groups. Methods: Data from three prospective studies of CAP conducted in the UK, New Zealand, and the Netherlands were combined. A derivation cohort comprising 80% of the data was used to develop the model. Prognostic variables were identified using multiple logistic regression with 30 day mortality as the outcome measure. The final model was tested against the validation cohort. Results: 1068 patients were studied (mean age 64 years, 51.5% male, 30 day mortality 9%). Age >65 years (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.6 to 8.0) and albumin <30 g/dl (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.5 to 8.7) were independently associated with mortality over and above the mBTS rule (OR 5.2, 95% CI 2.7 to 10). A six point score, one point for each of Confusion, Urea >7 mmol/l, Respiratory rate >30/min, low systolic(<90 mm Hg) or diastolic (<60 mm Hg) Blood pressure), age >65 years (CURB-65 score) based on information available at initial hospital assessment, enabled patients to be stratified according to increasing risk of mortality: score 0, 0.7%; score 1, 3.2%; score 2, 3%; score 3, 17%; score 4, 41.5% and score 5, 57%. The validation cohort confirmed a similar pattern. Conclusions: A simple six point score based on confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age can be used to stratify patients with CAP into different management groups.

Background Long-term shedding of viral RNA in COVID-19 prevents timely discharge from the hospital or de-escalation of infection prevention and control practices. Key questions are the duration and determinants of infectious virus shedding. We assessed these questions using virus cultures of respiratory tract samples from hospitalized COVID-19 patients as a proxy for infectious virus shedding. Methods Clinical and virological data were obtained from 129 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (89 intensive care, 40 medium care). Generalized estimating equations were used to identify if viral RNA load, detection of viral subgenomic RNA, serum neutralizing antibody response, duration of symptoms, or immunocompromised status were predictive for a positive virus culture. Findings Infectious virus shedding was detected in 23 of the 129 patients (17,8%). The median duration of shedding was 8 days post onset of symptoms (IQR 5-11) and the probability of detecting infectious virus dropped below 5% after 15,2 days post onset of symptoms (95% confidence interval (CI) 13,4-17,2). Multivariate analyses identified viral loads above 7 log10 RNA copies/mL (odds ratio [OR]; CI 14,7 (3,57-58,1; p<0,001) as independently associated with isolation of infectious SARS-CoV-2 from the respiratory tract. A serum neutralizing antibody titre of at least 1:20 (OR of 0,01 (CI 0,003-0,08; p<0,001) was independently associated with non-infectious SARS-CoV-2. Interpretation Infection prevention and control guidelines should take into account that patients with severe or critical COVID-19 may shed infectious virus for longer periods of time compared to what has been reported for in patients with mild COVID-19. Infectious virus shedding drops to undetectable levels below a viral RNA load threshold and once serum neutralizing antibodies are present, which warrants the use of quantitative viral RNA load assays and serological assays in test-based strategies to discontinue or de-escalate infection prevention and control precautions.

Key questions in COVID-19 are the duration and determinants of infectious virus shedding. Here, we report that infectious virus shedding is detected by virus cultures in 23 of the 129 patients (17.8%) hospitalized with COVID-19. The median duration of shedding infectious virus is 8 days post onset of symptoms (IQR 5–11) and drops below 5% after 15.2 days post onset of symptoms (95% confidence interval (CI) 13.4–17.2). Multivariate analyses identify viral loads above 7 log10 RNA copies/mL (odds ratio [OR] of 14.7 (CI 3.57-58.1; p < 0.001) as independently associated with isolation of infectious SARS-CoV-2 from the respiratory tract. A serum neutralizing antibody titre of at least 1:20 (OR of 0.01 (CI 0.003-0.08; p < 0.001) is independently associated with non-infectious SARS-CoV-2. We conclude that quantitative viral RNA load assays and serological assays could be used in test-based strategies to discontinue or de-escalate infection prevention and control precautions.