The water environment management public-private partnership (PPP) project has a long cooperation period, large investment scale, high technical requirements, and more complex risks, which are very important to identifying and preventing risks. This paper establishes a risk evaluation model for water environmental management PPP projects based on the intuitionistic fuzzy Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of a Ratio Analysis plus the full Multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) improved Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) method. Firstly, the risk indicators system of the water environmental management PPP project was constructed through the literature frequency statistics method and semi-structured interviews. Subsequently, the intuitionistic fuzzy FMEA method was used to assess the risk factors in terms of three aspects—severity, occurrence, and non-detectability—and gather expert information, and the expert assessment method and deviation maximization model method were applied to assign the risk factors. Finally, Intuitionistic fuzzy Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of a Ratio Analysis plus the full Multiplicative form (IF-MULTIMOORA) was applied to determine the risk indicator ranking and was combined with the water environmental management PPP project in Pingyu for example verification. The results show that the top five risk levels of PPP projects in Pingyu water environmental management are financing risk (changing financing conditions/high costs), market changes, government intervention and credit problems, imperfect legal and regulatory systems, and inflation. The risk assessment model proposed in this paper enables: (1) the evaluation of risk indicators from three perspectives, which is more accurate and comprehensive; (2) the introduction of intuitionistic fuzzy risk factor language variables to reasonably represent expert views; (3) the use of IF-MULTIMOORA for risk ranking to avoid the problem that RNP is the same and difficult to rank. This paper has important practical significance in promoting risk prevention and achieving the sustainable development of water environment management PPP projects.
The high-quality development of urbanization is strategically important for the sustainable economic and social development in the Yellow River Basin. It is necessary to establish a system of indicators to evaluate the high-quality development in terms of five aspects: innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing. Spatial autocorrelation, local Moran indices and cluster analysis are used to study the spatial–temporal distribution of high-quality urbanization development in each province. The results indicate that the urbanization level of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2018. However, the development of the five dimensions is not balanced. At the same time, the level of high-quality urbanization development in the Yellow River Basin has not shown significant spatial clustering characteristics and has not formed a good interactive relationship and aggregation effects. It is of great practical importance to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and the high quality of urbanization. The problems existing in the current development are found, and effective measures are proposed to make the urbanization development adapt to the economic and social development.
Water diversion infrastructure is characterized by a wide range of impacts and complex geological conditions. There are a large number of risk factors that affect its operational safety. Accidents that have occurred during operation have caused devastaing disasters to water diversion infrastructure. In this study, the failure modes for the operational risks of water diversion infrastructure are identified from four aspects, i.e.,environment, engineering technology, operation management, and society. A Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk poiorization model is established based on the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). A fuzzy rule base is established according to IF-THEN rules, and the risk priority is calculated and ranked via FIS. Lastly, a case study of the Huixian section of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is carried out to verify the proposed method. The results show that the risks of rainstorms, floods, and foundation failure are regarded as high priority. The validity and applicability of the proposed method are tested via comparison with traditional FMEA. These findings provide valuable information for the operational safety of water diversion infrastructure.
Purpose This paper aims to study the initial trust of the owner to the contractor, establish the initial trust mechanism, explore the factors that affect the initial trust of the owner to the contractor and analyze its influence mechanism. Based on this, it is easy for the owners and contractors to take targeted measures to improve the initial trust, which is conducive to the sustainable development of the project. Design/methodology/approach On the basis of reading a large amount of literature, this paper constructs the occurrence mechanism of the owner's initial trust to the contractor from the five factors of trust propensity, trust belief, trustee’s characteristics, institution-based trust, trust motivation and from the perspective of the owner using the structural equation model for questionnaire survey and empirical analysis. Findings The results of this paper show that the institution-based trust, the trustee’s characteristics and the trust belief of the trustor clearly have a positive effect on trust motivation, and the trustee’s characteristics have the most significant effect on the trust motivation. The influence of trust propensity on trust motivation was not significant. Originality/value This paper studies the occurrence mechanism of the owner's initial trust in the contractor, discusses its influencing factors and analyzes the influence of these factors on the initial trust, which enriches the theoretical system of initial trust research. The results of this study can help owners and contractors to develop targeted measures to build good initial trust.
In recent years, the effects of global warming has caused significant property damage and loss of life. Studying global warming is important to understand nature and protect ourselves. In order to explore the variation trend of the global warming, this paper collected authoritative data Based on the temperature data, by establishing grey prediction model (GM), we have made a reasonable prediction of the future temperature, calculated the expected time for the global temperature to reach 20 degrees Celsius, and reached the conclusion that the global temperature will continue to grow slowly.
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