As an important ecological security barrier in northern China, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (hereinafter referred to as Inner Mongolia) is seriously affected by drought. It is of great significance to characterize the spatial distribution of drought and identify the influencing factors of drought. Due to complex interactions among drought driving factors, it is difficult to quantify the contribution of each driving factor to drought using linear correlation analysis alone. In this study, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as a quantitative indicator of drought to discuss the spatiotemporal variation of drought during growing seasons in the Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2018. We quantitatively characterized mode, scope, and intensity of changes in SPEI caused by drought-influencing factors such as weather, water, topography, soil, and human activities using the Geodetector and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. We concluded that about 20.3% of the region showed a downward trend in SPEI, with the fastest rate of decline in the central and western Inner Mongolia. Air temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to rivers are the main controlling factors in drought change, and the factor interactions showed nonlinear enhancement. The drought driving effect was obvious in Alxa League, Wuhai City, Ulanqab City, and Baotou City. The results will help us to understand the effects of the driving factors on drought and eventually help policymakers with water-resource management.
The Three-North Shelter Forest (TNSF) program is a significant ecological safety barrier in northern China, where both climate change and anthropogenic activity contribute to the increase in vegetation coverage observed. However, comprehensive effects of these factors on vegetation have not been accurately quantified yet. This study utilized the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) data, meteorological data, and spatial distribution of ecological engineering to analyze spatiotemporal variation of FVC and climate in the TNSF program region in China during the period 1982–2018. A partial correlation analysis and residual analysis were performed to determine the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activity to the FVC and the overall effect of ecological governance. Results showed that since 1982, the average FVC in the TNSF program region was 0.201–0.253, with an average growth rate of 0.01·(10a)−1. The FVC showed a significant increase in 66.45% of the TNSF region, and will continue to increase, while only 7.02% showed a significant decrease. The coefficient of variation showed a large spatial variation, with 30.86% being in very low stability regions, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia and the Loess Plateau. A warm and wet climate is more conducive to increasing the FVC than the warm and dry climate, and ecological engineering has the largest impact on areas with an annual accumulated precipitation greater than 300 mm. A quantitative analysis revealed that climate change and anthropogenic activity contributed to the significant increase in the FVC in 15.58% and 46.81% of the TNSF region, respectively. Therefore, ecological governance projects, such as the TNSF program, play a crucial role in enhancing the FVC in this region.
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