No abstract

No abstract

The chemical transport model PMCAMx is used to examine the effect of climate change on fine (under 2.5 μms) particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the summer in the eastern United States. Meteorology from 10 years in the 1990s (present) and 10 years in the 2050s (future) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario is used. Anthropogenic pollutant emissions are assumed to remain constant, while biogenic emissions are climate sensitive and, depending on species, increase between 15 and 27% on average. The predicted changes of PM 2.5 are modest (increases of less than 10% on average across the domain) and quite variable in space, ranging from +13% in the Plains to À7% in the Northeast. Variability is driven concurrently by changes in temperature, wind speed, rainfall, and relative humidity, with no single dominant meteorological factor. Sulfate and organic aerosol are responsible for most of the PM 2.5 change. The improved treatment of organic aerosol using the volatility basis set does not increase significantly its sensitivity to climate change compared to traditional treatments that neglect the volatility of primary particles and do not simulate the chemical aging processes. Future organic aerosol is predicted to be more oxidized due to increases of its secondary biogenic and anthropogenic components. These results suggest that the effects of planned and expected emission anthropogenic emission controls will be more important than those of climate change for PM 2.5 concentrations in 2050. Maximum daily 8 h average ozone increases by 5% on average are predicted, with a marked increase in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest.

Emission inventories are the foundation for cost-effective air quality management activities. In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American emissions inventories and made recommendations for improving their effectiveness. This paper reviews the recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. The findings reveal that all emissions inventory improvement areas identified by the 2005 NARSTO publication have been explored and implemented to some degree. The U.S. National Emissions Inventory has become more detailed and has incorporated new research into previously under-characterized sources such as fine particles and biomass burning. Additionally, it is now easier to access the emissions inventory and the documentation of the inventory via the internet. However, many emissions-related research needs exist, on topics such as emission estimation methods, speciation, scalable emission factor development, incorporation of new emission measurement techniques, estimation of uncertainty, top-down verification, and analysis of uncharacterized sources. A common theme throughout this retrospective summary is the need for increased coordination among stakeholders. Researchers and inventory developers must work together to ensure that planned emissions research and new findings can be used to update the emissions inventory. To continue to address emissions inventory challenges, industry, the scientific community, and government agencies need to continue to leverage resources and collaborate as often as possible. As evidenced by the progress noted, continued investment in and coordination of emissions inventory activities will provide dividends to air quality management programs across the country, continent, and world.Implications: In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American air pollution emissions inventories. This paper reviews the eight recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. Although progress has been made, many opportunities exist for the scientific agencies, industry, and government agencies to leverage resources and collaborate to continue improving emissions inventories.

No abstract