Climate change affects crop production by distorting the indestructible productive power of the land. The objective of this study is to examine the economic impacts of climate change on net crop income in Nile Basin Ethiopia using a Ricardian fixed effect approach employing the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) household survey data for Ethiopia in 2015 and 2016. The survey samples were obtained through a three-stage stratified sampling technique from the five regions (Amhara, Tigray, Benishangul Gumuz, Oromia, and Southern Nation Nationality and People (SNNP) along the Nile basin Ethiopia. There are only 12–14% female household heads while there are 80–86% male households in the regions under study. In the regions, more than half of (64%) the household heads are illiterate and almost only one-tenth of them (12%) had received remittance from abroad from their relatives or children. Crop variety adoption rate is minimal, adopted by the 31% of farmers. Only 30% of the surveyed farmers mentioned that they planted their crop seeds in row whereas the rest 70% had not applied this method. The regression results from the fixed effect least square dummy variable model showed that literacy, household size, remittance, asset value, and total land holdings have significant and positive impacts on the net crop income per hectare. The regional dummy variables estimate indicated that all the regions are negatively affected by climate change at varying levels. Strategies to climate change adaptation have significant and positive contributions in leveraging the damaging effects of climate change. The results also showed that increased winter and summer temperature and rainfall increase net crop income per hectare. The estimated coefficient of the interaction term of spring temperature and rainfall is significant and negative. On the other hand, while the mean annual temperature is damaging to crops, annual rainfall is beneficial. It can be deduced that, while increased temperature and rainfall in summer and winter increase the net crop income, the converse is true for winter and spring seasons. The study also proposes a specific, context-dependent, farm-level adaptation analysis of how farmers cope with the different climatic impacts of the Nile Basin and maintain the income levels that they have previously enjoyed.
Effective adaptation to flooding risk depends on careful identification and combinations of strategies which, in turn, depends on knowledge of the determinants of flood adaptation. The main objective of this study was to examine the determinants of rural households’ intensity of flood adaptation in the Fogera rice plain, Ethiopia. A three-stage stratified sampling technique was employed to select 337 sample household heads. Primary data was collected through a structured household survey. Data analysis was accompanied by a descriptive and generalised Poisson regression (GP) model. The descriptive analysis showed that households adopted an average of three (3) flood adaptation strategies. The generalised Poisson regression further revealed that family size, availability of off-farm income, previous flood experience, access to credit, access to extension services, and an early warning information system statistically significantly increase flood adaptation strategies’ average number (intensity). However, the age of the household head negatively and significantly influences the intensity of flood adaptation. More specifically, households with off-farm income, previous flood experience, access to credit, access to extension, and an early warning information system were 20%, 94%, 13%, 30%, and 29% more likely to adopt more flood adaptation strategies, respectively. The findings call for immediate response and coordination among stakeholders to design strategies that enhance households’ livelihood, access to credit, access to extension services, and early warning information systems for effective flood adaptation in the study area.
Private extreme flood adaptation measures are cost effective and environmentally friendly. The objective of this study is to explore the major adaptation strategies, the determinants of the decisions of households to flood adaptation, specific prophylactic measures, and the constraints of these adaptation measures. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to select the 337 samples for the study. As the data analysis showed, farm households adopted moving to high elevation places, selling cattle, seasonal migration, flood tolerant rice, planting trees, and the construction of a dike as adaptation measures to flood. The binary logistic regression results from both the socioeconomic and protection motivation theory (PMT) showed that marital status, sex, family size, off-farm income, previous flood experience, access to credit, and the average number of extension visits had a statistically significant positive influence on the flood adaptation decision of households. On the other hand, age, educational attainment, farm size, and access to extension played a negative but statistically insignificant role in flood adaptation decision. The scientific novelty of the paper is that its results revealed that not only the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households play a role in the decision-making reactions related to the flood, but also the psychological preparedness of the decision makers. The analysis also drew attention that, due to the mitigation of global influences, in the coming years, households can assume a much more decisive role in the process of local food supply. Therefore, in order to ensure safe supply, climate change-related measures and adaptation strategies must be defined very precisely. Dealing with this phenomenon must be part of social and business innovation as it can cause not only food supply problems but also various migration effects, which, in the short term, would result in the most serious damage to the social system.
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