SummaryBackgroundTackling tuberculosis requires testing and treatment of latent tuberculosis in high-risk groups. The aim of this study was to estimate the predictive values of the tuberculin skin test (TST) and two interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) for the development of active tuberculosis in high-risk groups—ie, people in recent contact with active tuberculosis cases and from high-burden countries.MethodIn this prospective cohort study, we recruited participants from 54 centres (eg, clinics, community settings) in London, Birmingham, and Leicester in the UK. Participants were eligible if they were aged 16 years or older and at high risk for latent tuberculosis infection (ie, recent contact with someone with active tuberculosis [contacts] or a migrant who had arrived in the UK in the past 5 years from—or who frequently travelled to—a country with a high burden of tuberculosis [migrants]). Exclusion criteria included prevalent cases of tuberculosis, and participants who were treated for latent tuberculosis after a positive test result in this study. Each participant received three tests (QuantiFERON-TB Gold-In Tube, T-SPOT.TB, and a Mantoux TST). A positive TST result was reported using three thresholds: 5 mm (TST-5), 10 mm (TST-10), and greater than 5 mm in BCG-naive or 15 mm in BCG-vaccinated (TST-15) participants. Participants were followed up from recruitment to development of tuberculosis or censoring. Incident tuberculosis cases were identified by national tuberculosis databases, telephone interview, and review of medical notes. Our primary objective was to estimate the prognostic value of IGRAs compared with TST, assessed by the ratio of incidence rate ratios and predictive values for tuberculosis development. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01162265, and is now complete.FindingsBetween May 4, 2010, and June 1, 2015, 10 045 people were recruited, of whom 9610 were eligible for inclusion. Of this cohort, 4861 (50·6%) were contacts and 4749 (49·4%) were migrants. Participants were followed up for a median of 2·9 years (range 21 days to 5·9 years). 97 (1·0%) of 9610 participants developed active tuberculosis (77 [1·2%] of 6380 with results for all three tests). In all tests, annual incidence of tuberculosis was very low in those who tested negatively (ranging from 1·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 0·6–2·0 for TST-5 to 1·9 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 1·3–2·7, for QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube). Annual incidence in participants who tested positively were highest for T-SPOT.TB (13·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 9·9–17·4), TST-15 (11·1 per 1000 person-years, 8·3–14·6), and QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (10·1 per 1000 person-years, 7·4–13·4). Positive results for these tests were significantly better predictors of progression than TST-10 and TST-5 (eg, ratio of test positivity rates in those progressing to tuberculosis compared with those not progressing T-SPOT.TB vs TST-5: 1·99, 95% CI 1·68–2·34; p<0·0001). However, TST-5 identified a higher proportion of participants who progressed to acti...

Identification as a study of diagnostic accuracy using at least one measure of accuracy (such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, or AUC) 1, 5

Background Interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) are blood tests recommended for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) infection. There is currently uncertainty about the role and clinical utility of IGRAs in the diagnostic workup of suspected active TB in routine NHS clinical practice. Objectives To compare the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of T-SPOT.TB ® (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) and QuantiFERON® TB GOLD In-Tube (Cellestis, Carnegie, VIC, Australia) for diagnosis of suspected active TB and to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of second-generation IGRAs. Design Prospective within-patient comparative diagnostic accuracy study. Setting Secondary care. Participants Adults (aged ≥ 16 years) presenting as inpatients or outpatients at 12 NHS hospital trusts in London, Slough, Oxford, Leicester and Birmingham with suspected active TB. Interventions The index tests [T-SPOT.TB and QuantiFERON GOLD In-Tube (QFT-GIT)] and new enzyme-linked immunospot assays utilising novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens (Rv3615c, Rv2654, Rv3879c and Rv3873) were verified against a composite reference standard applied by a panel of clinical experts blinded to IGRA results. Main outcome measures Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were calculated to determine diagnostic accuracy. A decision tree model was developed to calculate the incremental costs and incremental health utilities [quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] of changing from current practice to using an IGRA as an initial rule-out test. Results A total of 363 patients had active TB (culture-confirmed and highly probable TB cases), 439 had no active TB and 43 had an indeterminate final diagnosis. Comparing T-SPOT.TB and QFT-GIT, the sensitivities [95% confidence interval (CI)] were 82.3% (95% CI 77.7% to 85.9%) and 67.3% (95% CI 62.1% to 72.2%), respectively, whereas specificities were 82.6% (95% CI 78.6% to 86.1%) and 80.4% (95% CI 76.1% to 84.1%), respectively. T-SPOT.TB was more sensitive than QFT-GIT (relative sensitivity 1.22, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.31; p < 0.001), but the specificities were similar (relative specificity 1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.08; p = 0.3). For both IGRAs the sensitivity was lower and the specificity was higher for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive than for HIV-negative patients. The most promising novel antigen was Rv3615c. The added value of Rv3615c to T-SPOT.TB was a 9% (95% CI 5% to 12%) relative increase in sensitivity at the expense of specificity, which had a relative decrease of 7% (95% CI 4% to 10%). The use of current IGRA tests for ruling out active TB is unlikely to be considered cost-effective if a QALY was valued at £20,000 or £30,000. For T-SPOT.TB, the probability of being cost-effective for a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY was 26% and 21%, when patients with indeterminate test results were excluded or included, respectively. In comparison, the QFT-GIT probabilities were 8% and 6%. Although the use of IGRAs is cost saving, the health detriment is large owing to delay in diagnosing active TB, leading to prolonged illness. There was substantial between-patient variation in the tests used in the diagnostic pathway. Limitations The recruitment target for the HIV co-infected population was not achieved. Conclusions Although T-SPOT.TB was more sensitive than QFT-GIT for the diagnosis of active TB, the tests are insufficiently sensitive for ruling out active TB in routine clinical practice in the UK. Novel assays offer some promise. Future work The novel assays require evaluation in distinct clinical settings and in immunosuppressed patient groups. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Background Many people prefer to die at home when the time comes. Hospice at home services aim to support patients to achieve this. A range of hospice at home services exist; some services have been evaluated, but there has been limited evidence synthesis. Objectives The main objective was to find out what models of hospice at home services work best, for whom and in what circumstances. Other objectives supported this aim, including an analysis of the health economic costs of hospice at home models. Design The study was an overarching, non-interventional, realist evaluation comprising three phases. Phase 1 was a survey of hospice at home services. Phase 2 involved 12 case studies, grouped into four models on the basis of size and 24 hours per day, 7 days per week (24/7), operations, from which quantitative and health economics data were gathered. Qualitative interview data from bereaved carers, commissioners and providers were analysed to generate context–mechanism–outcome configurations. Phase 3 comprised stakeholder consensus meetings. Setting Hospice at home services across England. Participants A total of 70 hospice at home managers responded to the survey. A total of 339 patient and family/informal carer dyads were recruited; 85 hospice at home providers and commissioners were interviewed. A total of 88 stakeholders participated in consensus meetings. Main outcome measures The quality of dying and death of patients was assessed by bereaved carers (using the Quality of Dying and Death questionnaire). A patient’s use of services was collected using the Ambulatory and Home Care Record. Results Hospice at home services varied; two-thirds were mainly charitably funded, and not all operated 24/7. Most patients (77%) had cancer. Hospice at home services overall provided care that was likely to deliver ‘a good death’, and 73% of patients died in their preferred place. Six context–mechanism–outcome configurations captured factors relevant to providing optimum hospice at home services: (1) sustainability (of the hospice at home service); (2) volunteers (use of, in the hospice at home service); (3) integration and co-ordination (with the wider health and social care system); (4) marketing and referral (of the hospice at home service); (5) knowledge, skills and ethos (of hospice at home staff); and (6) support directed at the carer at home. Key markers of a good service included staff who had time to care, providing hands-on care; staff whose knowledge and behaviour promoted supportive relationships and confidence through the process of dying; and services attending to the needs of the informal carer. Areas of potential improvement for most hospice at home services were the use of volunteers in hospice at home, and bereavement care. Limitations The study had the following limitations – heterogeneity of hospice at home services, variations in numbers and patient clinical statuses at recruitment, a low Quality of Dying and Death questionnaire response rate, and missing data. Only patients with an informal carer involved on a daily basis were eligible for the study. Conclusions Hospice at home services delivered high-quality care and a ‘good death’, with the majority of patients dying in their stated preferred place. Hospice at home providers can improve their impact by focusing on the features identified that deliver the best patient outcomes. Commissioners can facilitate patient preference and reduce the number of hospital deaths by working with hospice at home services to secure their financial sustainability and increase the numbers and range of patients admitted to hospice at home services. Future research Future research should explore the use of volunteers in the hospice at home setting and evaluate approaches to bereavement support. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 10, No. 24. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background Growing prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the ageing population and its associated life-changing health and resource implications have led to a need to improve its early detection. Primary care is an ideal place to screen for AF; however, this is limited by shortages in general practitioner (GP) resources. Recent increases in the number of clinical pharmacists within primary care makes them ideally placed to conduct AF screening. This study aimed to determine the feasibility of GP practice–based clinical pharmacists to screen the over-65s for AF, using digital technology and pulse palpation during the influenza vaccination season. Methods and findings Screening was conducted over two influenza vaccination seasons, 2017–2018 and 2018–2019, in four GP practices in Kent, United Kingdom. Pharmacists were trained by a cardiologist to pulse palpate, record, and interpret a single-lead ECG ( SL ECG). Eligible persons aged ≥65 years (y) attending an influenza vaccination clinic were offered a free heart rhythm check. Six hundred four participants were screened (median age 73 y, 42.7% male). Total prevalence of AF was 4.3%. All participants with AF qualified for anticoagulation and were more likely to be male (57.7%); be older; have an increased body mass index (BMI); and have a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65–74 years, Sex category) score ≥ 3. The sensitivity and specificity of clinical pharmacists diagnosing AF using pulse palpation was 76.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56.4–91.0) and 92.2% (95% CI 89.7–94.3), respectively. This rose to 88.5% (95% CI 69.9–97.6) and 97.2% (95% CI 95.5–98.4) with an SL ECG. At follow-up, four participants (0.7%) were diagnosed with new AF and three (0.5%) were initiated on anticoagulation. Screening with SL ECG also helped identify new non-AF cardiovascular diagnoses, such as left ventricular hypertrophy, in 28 participants (4.6%). The screening strategy was cost-effective in 71.8% and 64.3% of the estimates for SL ECG or pulse palpation, respectively. Feedback from participants (422/604) was generally positive. Key limitations of the study were that the intervention did not reach individuals who did not attend the practice for an influenza vaccination and there was a limited representation of UK ethnic minority groups in the study cohort. Conclusions This study demonstrates that AF screening performed by GP practice–based pharmacists was feasible, economically viable, and positively endorsed by participants. Furthermore, diagnosis of AF by the clinical pharmacist using an SL ECG was more sensitive and more specific than the use of pulse palpation alone. Future research should explore the key barriers preventing th...

BackgroundTackling tuberculosis (TB) requires testing and treatment of high-risk groups for latent tuberculosis infection. We estimated the predictive values of the tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) for development of active TB in migrants and contacts of active TB patients in the UK.MethodsParticipants were prospectively recruited in clinics and the community and followed for a median of 2.9 years. We administered IGRAs (Quantiferon Gold In-Tube [QFT-GIT] and T-SPOT.TB) and TST (with 3 thresholds: 5 mm (TST5), 10 mm (TST10) and TST15 (5 mm in BCG-naïve, 15 mm in vaccinated). Potential incident TB cases were identified by telephone interview and national TB databases and confirmed by medical note review.ResultsNinety-seven (1.0%) of 9610 participants developed active TB (77 of 6386 who had Results for T-SPOT.TB, QFT-GIT and TST). All tests had very low incidence in test negatives (1.2–1.6 per 1000 per year). Incidence rates in test positives were highest for TSpot.TB (13.2 95% CI: (9.9–17.4)), TST15 (11.1 (8.3,14.6)) and QFT.GIT (10.1 (7.4,13.4)); positive test Results for these tests were significantly more predictive of progression than TST10 and TST5, TSpot.TB was also higher than QFT.GIT. TST5 predicted more at high risk (55%) than TST10 (45%), TSpot.TB (33%), TST15 (38%) and QFT.GIT (31%).ConclusionsIGRA-based or TST15 strategies are most suited for population screening in low-risk populations. Although TST5 and TST10 detect more TB cases this is at the cost of more individuals being classified at high risk with lower positive predictive values.

ObjectiveHospice at Home (HAH) services aim to enable patients to be cared for and die at home, if that is their choice and achieve a ‘good death’. A national survey, in 2017, aimed to describe and compare the features of HAH services and understand key enablers to service provision.MethodsService managers of adult HAH services in the ‘Hospice UK’ and National Association for Hospice at Home directories within England were invited to participate. Information on service configuration, referral, staffing, finance, care provision and enablers to service provision were collected by telephone interview.ResultsOf 128 services invited, 70 (54.7%) provided data. Great diversity was found. Most services operated in mixed urban/rural (74.3%) and mixed deprivation (77.1%) areas and provided hands-on care (97.1%), symptom assessment and management (91.4%), psychosocial support (94.3%) and respite care (74.3%). Rapid response (within 4 hours) was available in 65.7%; hands-on care 24 hours a day in 52.2%. Charity donations were the main source of funding for 71.2%. Key enablers for service provision included working with local services (eg, district nursing, general practitioner services), integrated health records, funding and anticipatory care planning. Access to timely medication and equipment was critical.ConclusionThere is considerable variation in HAH services in England. Due to this variation it was not possible to categorise services into delivery types. Services work to supplement local care using a flexible approach benefitting from integration and funding. Further work defining service features related to patient and/or carer outcomes would support future service development.

IntroductionAtrial fibrillation (AF) affects >6% of people aged 65 years or older. Left undetected and untreated, patients may develop significant cardiovascular complications and have a fivefold increased risk of suffering a stroke. For 40% of all sufferers, AF can be asymptomatic. Every year in the UK, £2.2 billion is spent on AF-related strokes, so there is an urgent need to improve early detection of AF. This study aims to determine the feasibility of using trained clinical pharmacists based in general practices, to screen for AF, using pulse palpation and a single-lead ECG device on participants aged 65 years or older, attending influenza vaccination clinics.Methods and analysisSeven clinical pharmacists will be trained by a cardiologist to pulse palpate and record single-lead ECGs using the AliveCor Kardia Mobile device. Quantitative analysis will assess the accuracy and ability of the clinical pharmacist to identify pulse irregularities using pulse palpation and to record and interpret a single-lead ECG. The level of agreement of pulse irregularities detected by pulse palpation will be compared with those detected by the single-lead ECG device, as will the level of agreement between the cardiologist and the device’s interpretation of the ECG. The proportion of people identified with AF (confirmed by the cardiologist) will be determined. Additional demographic data will be obtained from all participants through a questionnaire. Qualitative data will be captured from the participants, from the clinical pharmacists and from the general practitioners and practice staff to determine their views on this method of AF screening. We aim to recruit 600 participants across general practices within Kent.Ethics and disseminationThis protocol was approved by the London–Riverside Research Ethics committee. The findings of this study will be disseminated through forums including, but not limited to, peer-reviewed journals, national and international conferences.