Identifying the drivers that control the reproductive success of a population is vital to forecasting the consequences of climate change in terms of distribution shift and population dynamics. In the present study, we aimed to improve our understanding of the environmental conditions that allowed the colonization of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, in the Bay of Brest since its introduction in the 1960s. We also aimed to evaluate the potential consequences of future climate change on its reproductive success and further expansion. Highlights ► The DEB model available for the Pacific oyster was applied in a new coastal environment: the bay of Brest (France). ► This version was successfully calibrated using a new dataset covering 6 years (from 2009 to 2014) of field monitoring. ► The model successfully predicted in detail the complex reproductive processes of C. gigas, especially its spawning behavior. ► Hindcasting and forecasting simulations of the reproductive phenology of C. gigas were performed using IPCC scenarios.
The present study aimed to improve understanding of the environmental conditions influencing the reproductive cycle of the great scallop Pecten maximus in two locations in Brittany (France). We also evaluated potential consequences of future climate change for reproductive success in each site. We simulated reproductive traits (spawning occurrences and synchronicity among individuals) of P. maximus, using an existing Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model. To validate and test the model, we used biological and environmental datasets available for the Bay of Brest (West Brittany, France) between 1998 and 2003. We also applied the scallop DEB model in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc (North Brittany, France) for the same period (1998-2003) to compare the reproductive cycle in different environmental conditions. In order to accurately model the P. maximus reproductive cycle we improved the scallop DEB model in two ways: through (1) energy acquisition, by incorporating microphytobenthos as a new food source; and (2) the reproductive process, by adding a new state variable dedicated to the gamete production. Finally, we explored the effects of two contrasting IPCC climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) on the reproductive cycle of P. maximus in these two areas at the 2100 horizon. Please note that this is an author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available on the publisher Web site. phenology through an earlier onset of spawning by 20 to 44 days depending on the year. Highlights ► We aimed at better understanding and quantifying the effect of environmental variables (temperature and food sources) on the reproduction variability of the Great Scallop Pecten maximus in Brittany. ► We improved an existing scallop-DEB model at two different levels, by adding a new food source and a more detailed reproduction module. ► We compared reproductive traits of the Great Scallop in two Brittany locations for the period 1998-2003 and we made forecasts at the 2100 horizon within a context of ocean warming. ► We evidenced two different effects of the increase of seawater temperature depending on the location: a most efficient autumnal last spawning in the Bay of Brest and an earlier onset of spawning in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc.
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