Ethnic conflict is prominent and recurrent in contemporary world politics, expressed in both internal and international disputes. The main goal of this study is to link ethnic conflict at the state level and its spillover to international conflict and crisis. More specifically, it examines the relationship between particular ethnic dimensions and international crises. The examination focuses on ethnic diversity among adversaries and ethnic issues within interstate confrontations, and their effects on crisis dynamics. The analysis links two major datasets: the Minorities at Risk (MAR) Project, which characterizes worldwide ethno-political actors of several types, and the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project, which analyzes international conflicts and crises across the world. Analyses of 133 ethnic-related international crises in the period 1918-2002, in which 67 ethno-political actors were involved, reveal the multidimensional impact that ethnicity has upon international conflict. Ethnic conflict increases the complexity and danger inherent in international crisis. The presence of ethnic diversity extends crisis duration, increases the level of its violence, and impedes accommodative crisis outcome. Moreover, the changing world order is characterized by a shift in the issue agenda. Ethnic issues related to identity and to political and economic status, which mainly concern non-state political actors, create both intrastate and interstate confrontations and shape the behavior of major actors on the world stage. Different ethnic issues in crises have diverse influences on crisis process and outcome.

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Afghanistan has been the scene of enduring violent conflict for three decades, yet the sources of its conflict date back to the establishment of the Afghan state in the eighteenth century. The American-led military intervention in October 2001 ended the extremist Taliban rule in the torn country and facilitated democratic elections but did not terminate the Afghan turmoil and the threat of its regional spillover effects. Six years after the invasion, hopes for renovation, peace, and stability are entwined with great challenges and fears of continuing insecurity. Alongside efforts to advance social, economic, and security reforms, the Afghan government, assisted by international forces, faces escalating insurgency by Taliban and al-Qaeda militants. This complex and dangerous situation questions the possibility of imminent peace and stable democracy in a country where violence and enduring conflict have been instrumental throughout its history. The central thesis of this essay is that to understand the Afghan conflict we must take into account a variety of interrelated factors from the global, regional, and internal cycles of analysis, none of which can be isolated or seen as satisfactory in itself. More specifically, it is contended here that efforts made by external powers to manage ethnic conflicts and establish a nation-building process in foreign countries should be based on broad consent of the parties involved.

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