Background Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China. Methods We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups. Results A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45–64 years old. Conclusions Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15–64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China. Graphical Abstract
Background: Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis. Owing to the different incidences in males and females, this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male (subscript m) and female (subscript f) individuals using a newly developed sex-based model. Methods:The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/ Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset, and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex-and age-specific transmissions.Results: From 2005 to 2017, 130 770 shigellosis cases (including 73 981 male and 56 789 female cases) were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data (P < 0.001). The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225 × 10 8 for SAR mm (secondary attack rate from male to male), 2.5729 × 10 8 for SAR mf , 2.7630 × 10 -8 for SAR fm , and 2.1061 × 10 -8 for SAR ff . The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010 (where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age ≤ 5 years, 2 was male and age 6 to 59 years, 3 was male and age ≥ 60 years, 4 was female and age ≤ 5 years, 5 was female and age 6 to 59 years, and 6 was male and age ≥ 60 years) were 5.76 × 10 -8 for β 61 , 5.32 × 10 -8 for β 31 , 4.01 × 10 -8 for β 34 , 7.52 × 10 -9 for β 62 , and 6.04 × 10 -9 for β 64 .Conclusions: The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders, particularly female-to-male transmission. The most important route in children (age ≤ 5 years) was transmission from the elderly (age ≥ 60 years). Therefore, the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.
Young migrants have been the major migrant labor force in urban China. But they may be more vulnerable in quality of life and mental health than other groups, due to their personal characteristic and some social/community policies or management measures. It highlights the need to focus on psychological wellbeing and probe driving and reinforcing factors that influence their mental health. This study aimed to investigate the influence of subjective/objective status and possible pathways of young migrants’ life satisfaction and psychological distress. Data on 9838 young migrants in the China Migrants Dynamic Survey were analyzed by LISREL 8.8. A total of 94.03% migrated for jobs or business. Subjective status, including subjective socioeconomic status, social adaptation, and psychological integration, had positive effects on life satisfaction, whereas social adaptation and psychological integration negatively affected psychological distress. Objective status, including objective socioeconomic status and health insurance, had adverse effects on life satisfaction, whereas they positively affected psychological distress. Social participation and city belonging had only significant positive mediating roles on life satisfaction. It is essential to increase social adaptation and decrease integration stress according to younger internal migrants’ practical needs. It is also necessary to enhance community/social resources and activities in the context of developing sustainability in the community to assist in mental health promotion.
With increasing age, middle-aged and older persons face a series of physical and mental health problems. This study aimed to explore the latent relationships among age, functional disability, depression, and life satisfaction. The data were obtained from the Wave 2 (in 2013–2014) and Wave 3 (in 2015–2016) surveys of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. The analytic sample in the present study included 15,950 individuals aged 45 years and over. The participants answered the same questions concerning depression and life satisfaction in both study waves, and functional disability was measured based on the activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living. Age was directly associated with functional disability, life satisfaction, and depression. Functional disability was positively correlated with depression and negatively correlated with life satisfaction. Functional disability strongly mediated the relationships among age, depression, and life satisfaction. Depression and life satisfaction were found to have enduring effects and effects on each other. Additionally, the model revealed a gender difference. Depression in middle-aged people should receive closer attention. Avoiding or improving functional disability may be an effective way to improve life satisfaction and reduce the level of depression in middle-aged and older persons. If prevention work successfully decreases depression, the life dissatisfaction of middle-aged and older people could be improved. Additionally, for the prevention of functional disability and depression and improvement in life satisfaction, gender differences need to be considered.
Hepatitis C imposes a heavy burden on many countries, including China, where the number of reported cases and the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) increased yearly from 2005 to 2012, with a stable trend after 2012. The geographical distribution of HCV infections varies widely in China, with the northwest and southwest regions and the Henan Province showing a high disease burden. Elderly, men, sexually active people, drug users, migrants, blood transfusion recipients, and renal dialysis patients have become the target populations for hepatitis C prevention and control. It is important to improve the diagnosis rate in high-risk groups and asymptomatic people. Identifying secondary HCV infections, especially in HCV patients co-infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a priority of hepatitis C prevention and control. Enhancing universal access to direct antiviral agents (DAAs) treatment regimens is an effective way to improve the cure rate of HCV infection. For China to contribute to the WHO 2030 global HCV elimination plan, strategic surveillance, management, and treatment program for HCV are needed.
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