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a b s t r a c tVarious market-based measures have been proposed to reduce CO 2 emissions from international shipping. One promising mechanism under consideration is the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). This study analyzes and benchmarks the economic implications of two alternative ETS mechanisms, namely, an open ETS compared to a Maritime only ETS (METS). The analytical solutions and model calibration results allow us to quantify the impacts of alternative ETS schemes on the container shipping sector and the dry bulk shipping sector. It is found that an ETS, whether open or maritime only, will decrease shipping speed, carrier outputs and fuel consumption for both the container and dry bulk sectors, even in the presence of a ''wind-fall'' profit to shipping companies. Under an open ETS, the dry bulk sector will suffer from a higher proportional reduction in output than the container sector, and will thus sell more emission permits or purchase fewer permits. Under an METS, container carriers will buy emission permits from the dry bulk side. In addition, under an METS the degree of competition within one sector will have spill-over effects on the other sector. Specifically, when the sector that sells (buys) permits is more collusive (competitive), the equilibrium permit price will rise. This study provides a framework for identifying the moderating effects of market structure and competition between firms on emission reduction schemes, and emphasizes the importance of understanding the differential impacts of ETS schemes on individual sectors within an industry when considering alternative policies.

Assessing the potential demand for container ports and related multimodal transportation is critical for several purposes, including financial feasibility analysis and the evaluation of net economic benefits and their distribution. When developed in conjunction with a geographical information system, port-related demand analysis also provides needed input for assessment of selected environmental issues, such as truck traffic on local roads and related potential external costs, such as air pollution and noise. However, container port demand analysis is very difficult due to the complexities of international trade in containerised goods, inter-port competition, and potential strategic behaviour by several parties. Difficulties also arise from the many factors to be considered, major data requirements, and the computationally intensive nature of the problem. This paper summarises the development and application of a spatial-economic, multimodal container transportation demand simulation model for major US container ports. The underlying economic framework assumes shippers minimise the total general cost of moving containers from sources to markets. The model is validated and then used to estimate (1) annual container transportation service demand for major container ports, (2) the market areas served by selected ports, and (3) the impact on port demand and interport competition due to hypothetical changes in port use fees at selected ports. This paper first describes the model and the underlying economic reasoning, followed by the assumptions, computational algorithms, and the software architecture. Then, the trade data, transportation networks, and economic variables are described. After that, model simulation results are presented with qualifications, needed refinements, and future directions. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2003) 5, 158–178. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100067

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