Background: Iran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios. Methods: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Under scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800). Conclusion: With no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.

ImportanceThe protein-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines FINLAY-FR-2 (Soberana 02) and FINLAY-FR-1A (Soberana Plus) showed good safety and immunogenicity in phase 1 and 2 trials, but the clinical efficacy of the vaccine remains unknown.ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy and safety of a 2-dose regimen of FINLAY-FR-2 (cohort 1) and a 3-dose regimen of FINLAY-FR-2 with FINLAY-FR-1A (cohort 2) in Iranian adults.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsA multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial was conducted at 6 cities in cohort 1 and 2 cities in cohort 2. Participants included individuals aged 18 to 80 years without uncontrolled comorbidities, coagulation disorders, pregnancy or breastfeeding, recent immunoglobulin or immunosuppressive therapy, and clinical presentation or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 on enrollment. The study was conducted from April 26 to September 25, 2021.InterventionsIn cohort 1, 2 doses of FINLAY-FR-2 (n = 13 857) or placebo (n = 3462) were administered 28 days apart. In cohort 2, 2 doses of FINLAY-FR-2 plus 1 dose of FINLAY-FR-1A (n = 4340) or 3 placebo doses (n = 1081) were administered 28 days apart. Vaccinations were administered via intramuscular injection.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was polymerase chain reaction–confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 infection at least 14 days after vaccination completion. Other outcomes were adverse events and severe COVID-19. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed.ResultsIn cohort 1 a total 17 319 individuals received 2 doses and in cohort 2 5521 received 3 doses of the vaccine or placebo. Cohort 1 comprised 60.1% men in the vaccine group and 59.1% men in the placebo group; cohort 2 included 59.8% men in the vaccine group and 59.9% in the placebo group. The mean (SD) age was 39.3 (11.9) years in cohort 1 and 39.7 (12.0) years in cohort 2, with no significant difference between the vaccine and placebo groups. The median follow-up time in cohort 1 was 100 (IQR, 96-106) days and, in cohort 2, 142 (137-148) days. In cohort 1, 461 (3.2%) cases of COVID-19 occurred in the vaccine group and 221 (6.1%) in the placebo group (vaccine efficacy: 49.7%; 95% CI, 40.8%-57.3%) vs 75 (1.6%) and 51 (4.3%) in cohort 2 (vaccine efficacy: 64.9%; 95% CI, 49.7%-59.5%). The incidence of serious adverse events was lower than 0.1%, with no vaccine-related deaths.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of the efficacy and safety of FINLAY-FR-2 and FINLAY-FR-1A, 2 doses of FINLAY-FR-2 plus the third dose of FINLAY-FR-1A showed acceptable vaccine efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 as well as COVID-19–related severe infections. Vaccination was generally safe and well tolerated. Therefore, Soberana may have utility as an option for mass vaccination of the population, especially in resource-limited settings, because of its storage condition and affordable price.Trial Registrationisrctn.org Identifier: IRCT20210303050558N1

Background: During the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Iran reported high numbers of infections and deaths. In the following months, the burden of this infection decreased significantly, possibly due to the impact of a package of interventions. We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in Iran to quantify the impacts of these interventions. Methods: We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to model the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, from January 21, 2020 to September 21, 2020. We estimated the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Under different scenarios, we assessed the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including physical distancing measures and self-isolation. We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R t ), using our mathematical model and epidemiologic data. Results: If no NPIs were applied, there could have been a cumulative number of 51 800 000 (95% UI: 1 910 000-77 600 000) COVID-19 infections and 266 000 (95% UI: 119 000-476 000) deaths by September 21, 2020. If physical distancing interventions, such as school/border closures and self-isolation interventions had been introduced a week earlier than they were actually launched, 30.8% and 35.2% reduction in the number of deaths and infections respectively could have been achieved by September 21, 2020. The observed daily number of deaths showed that the Rt was one or more than one almost every day during the analysis period. Conclusion: Our models suggest that the NPIs implemented in Iran between January 21, 2020 and September 21, 2020 had significant effects on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our study also showed that the timely implementation of NPIs showed a profound effect on further reductions in the numbers of infections and deaths. This highlights the importance of forecasting and early detection of future waves of infection and of the need for effective preparedness and response capabilities.

Background The novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly became the world’s largest threat to health and the economy in recent times. Prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic’s full impact is a necessary gauge for future policy making, including resource allocation for prevention, mitigation, and control preparedness.Methods We used the extended form of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected/Infectious-Recovered/Removed (SEIR) model to predict new cases and number of deaths associated to COVID-19. Data from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran provided relevant parameters for predicting disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We conducted a review of the literature on COVID-19-like diseases to develop disability weights (DWs) and convened an expert panel to verify their applicability. Beta-PERT distributions were used to calculate DWs for age groups. The minimum and maximum values were 0 and 0.14 for mild to severe disability, respectively.Results The total DALYs for COVID-19 in Iran predicted by our model will be 973 per 100,000 populations from January, 2020 to January, 2021. Overall, 957 years per 100,000 will be from YLLs (98.4% of DALYs) and 16 will be from YLDs (1.6% of DALY). The total DALYs in men will be 1,082 years per 100,000 and 861 per 100,000 in women.Conclusions Our predictions of COVID-19 burden will be useful in determining health priorities and to appropriately allocate resources to prepare for future outbreaks of COVID-19 and similar diseases. We hope this study will contribute to evidence-based health policy making in Iran.

COVID-19 is spreading all over Iran, and Kerman is one of the most affected cities. We conducted this study to predict COVID-19-related deaths, hospitalization, and infected cases under different scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) by 31 December 2021 in Kerman. We also aimed to assess the impact of new COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the total number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations (scenarios D, E, and F) using the modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. We calibrated the model using deaths reported from the start of the epidemic to August 30, 2021. A Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) uncertainty analysis was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We also calculated the time-varying reproductive number ( R t ) following time-dependent methods. Under the worst-case scenario (scenario A; contact   rate = 10 , self ‐ isolation   rate = 30 % , and average vaccination shots per day = 5,000 ), the total number of infections by December 31, 2021, would be 1,625,000 (95% UI: 1,112,000–1,898,000) with 6,700 deaths (95% UI: 5,200–8,700). With the presence of alpha and delta variants without vaccine (scenario D), the total number of infected cases and the death toll were estimated to be 957,000 (95% UI: 208,000–1,463,000) and 4,500 (95% UI: 1,500–7,000), respectively. If 70% of the population were vaccinated when the alpha variant was dominant (scenario E), the total number of infected cases and deaths would be 608,000 (95% UI: 122,000–743,000) and 2,700 (95% UI: 700–4,000), respectively. The R t was ≥1 almost every day during the epidemic. Our results suggest that policymakers should concentrate on improving vaccination and interventions, such as reducing social contacts, stricter limitations for gathering, public education to promote social distancing, incensing case finding and contact tracing, effective isolation, and quarantine to prevent more COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Kerman.