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A simulation study was carried out to describe effects of climate change on crop growth and irrigation water demand for a wheat-maize cropping sequence in a Mediterranean environment of Turkey. Climate change scenarios were projected using data of the three general circulation models—GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI)—for the period of 1990 to 2100 and one regional climate model—RCM—for the period of 2070 to 2079. Potential impacts of climate change based on GCMs data were estimated for the A2 scenario in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The forcing data for the boundary condition of the RCM were given by the MRI model. Daily CGCM2 and RCM data were used for computations of water balance and crop development. Predictions derived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth in this study covered the period of 2070 to 2079 relative to the baseline period of 1994 to 2003. The effects of climate change on water demand and on wheat and maize yields were predicted using the detailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant) model.Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the period of 1990 to 2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models, respectively. The CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models projected a temperature rise of 4.3, 5.3 and 3.1 °C, respectively by 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higher evaporative demand of the atmosphere. However, actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from wheat cropland under a doubling CO2 concentration for the period of 2070 to 2079 was predicted to decrease by about 28 and 8% relative to the baseline period based on the CGCM2 and RCM data, respectively. According to these models, irrigation demand by wheat would be higher for the same period due to a decrease in precipitation. Both ETa and irrigation water for maize cropland were projected to decrease by 24 and 15% according to the CGCM2, and 28 and 22% according to the RCM, respectively. The temperature rise accelerated crop development but shortened the growing period by 24 days for wheat and 9 days for maize according to the CGCM2 data. The shortened growth duration with a higher temperature reduced the biomass accumulation of both crops regardless of CO2-fertilization effect. With the combined effect of CO2-fertilization and increased temperature, the CGCM2 and RCM projections resulted in an increase by 16 and 36% in grain yield of wheat and a decrease by about 25% and an increase by 3% in maize yield, respectively.

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The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994--2003 and 2070--2079. Potential evaporation (Ep) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (Ea) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91-105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477-480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R2 = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R2 = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and Ea from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ETr and Ep projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, Ea from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently, to decreased soil wetness in the future.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to quantify the motion dynamics of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods Three physical models of Newton's and Stokes's laws with(out) air resistance in the calm air are used to determine the falling time and velocity regimes of SARS-CoV-2 with(out) a respiratory water droplet of 1 to 2000 micrometers (µm) in diameter of an infected person of 0.5 to 2.6 m in height. Results The horizontal distance travelled by SARS-CoV-2 in free fall from 1.7 m was 0.88 m due to breathing or talking and 2.94 m due to sneezing or coughing. According to Newton's laws of motion with air resistance, its falling velocity and time from 1.7 m were estimated at 3.95 × 10 −2 m s −1 and 43 s, respectively. Large droplets > 100 µm reached the ground from 1.7 m in less than 1.6 s, while the droplets ≥ 30 µm fell within 4.42 s regardless of the human height. Based on Stokes's law, the falling time of the droplets encapsulating SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 4.26 × 10 −3 to 8.83 × 10 4 s as a function of the droplet size and height. Conclusion The spread dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is closely coupled to the falling dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for which Newton's and Stokes's laws appeared to be applicable mostly to the respiratory droplet size ≥ 237.5 µm and ≤ 237.5 µm, respectively. An approach still remains to be desired so as to better quantify the motion of the nano-scale objects.

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A simplified model has been devised to estimate the falling dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona-virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-laden droplets in an indoor environment. Our estimations were compared to existing literature data. The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is closely coupled to its falling dynamics as a function of respiratory droplet diameter (1 to 2000 μm) of an infected person and droplet evaporation. The falling time of SARS-CoV-2 with a respiratory droplet diameter of about 300 μm from a height of 1.7 m remained almost the same among the Newtonian lift equation, Stokes’s law, and our simplified model derived from them so as to account for its evaporation. The evaporative demand peaked at midday which was ten times that at midnight. The evaporating droplets 6 μm lost their water content rapidly, making their lifetimes in the air shorter than their falling times. The droplets 6 μm were able to evaporate completely and remained in the air for about 5 min as droplet nuclei with SARS-CoV-2.