Urbanization processes challenge the growth of orchards in many cities in Iran. In Maragheh, orchards are crucial ecological, economical, and tourist sources. To explore orchards threatened by urban expansion, this study first aims to develop a new model by coupling cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural network with fuzzy set theory (CA-ANN-Fuzzy). While fuzzy set theory captures the uncertainty associated with transition rules, the ANN considers spatial and temporal nonlinearities of the driving forces underlying the urban growth processes. Second, the CA-ANN-Fuzzy model is compared with two existing approaches, namely a basic CA and a CA coupled with an ANN (CA-ANN). Third, we quantify the amount of orchard loss during the last three decades as well as for the upcoming years up to 2025. Results show that CA-ANN-Fuzzy with 83% kappa coefficient performs significantly better than conventional CA (with 51% kappa coefficient) and CA-ANN (with 79% kappa coefficient) models in simulating orchard loss. The historical data shows a considerable loss of 26% during the last three decades, while the CA-ANN-Fuzzy simulation reveals a considerable future loss of 7% of Maragheh's orchards in 2025 due to urbanization. These areas require special attention and must be protected by the local government and decision-makers.

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SUMMARYThe optimal coordination of overcurrent relays is an important task in the field of power system protection. Traditionally, this problem is solved with the assumption of the grid being in maximum or minimum loading and dominant topology, that is, the topology in which the grid operates most of the time. However, the grid condition changes during the time because of many reasons. In this paper, by sampling voltage and load current phasors at the high-voltage (HV) bus of a substation, an online method, based on an evolutionary algorithm, is introduced to estimate the grid's Thevenin equivalent viewed from the HV bus. Then, the Thevenin equivalent together with the connection status and short-circuit model of local power transformers and local distributed generations are used to estimate three-phase short-circuit currents in the existing condition of the grid. Finally, these fault currents are used for adaptive optimal coordination of overcurrent relays of the HV substation, such that the optimal coordination of the relays is preserved in all the grid conditions. Case studies, performed on the overcurrent protection of a typical 230/20 kV substation connected to a 9-bus grid, prove desired performance of the proposed online adaptive setting method. Furthermore, this method needs no telecommunications and represents a step toward self-adjusting overcurrent relays.