Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.

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Abstract:Urban forest ecosystems provide a range of social and ecological services, but due to the heterogeneity of these canopies their spatial extent is difficult to quantify and monitor. Traditional per-pixel classification methods have been used to map urban canopies, however, such techniques are not generally appropriate for assessing these highly variable landscapes. Landsat imagery has historically been used for per-pixel driven land use/land cover (LULC) classifications, but the spatial resolution limits our ability to map small urban features. In such cases, hyperspatial resolution imagery such as aerial or satellite imagery with a resolution of 1 meter or below is preferred. Object-based image analysis (OBIA) allows for use of additional variables such as texture, shape, context, and other cognitive information provided by the image analyst to segment and classify image features, and thus, improve classifications. As part of this research we created LULC classifications for a pilot study area in Seattle, WA, USA, using OBIA techniques and freely available public aerial photography. We analyzed the differences in accuracies which can be achieved with OBIA using multispectral and true-color imagery. We also compared our results to a satellite based OBIA LULC and discussed the implications of per-pixel driven vs. OBIA-driven field sampling campaigns. We demonstrated that the OBIA approach can generate good and repeatable LULC classifications suitable for tree cover assessment in urban areas. Another important finding is that spectral content appeared to be more important than spatial detail of hyperspatial data when it comes to an OBIA-driven LULC.

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The importance of connectivity for species conservation has resulted in myriad attempts to identify corridors linking habitat patches and conservation areas. However, making smart decisions for restoring connectivity requires information beyond simple maps of corridors. Here, we combine land-parcel cost estimates with a new analytical approach that pinpoints where barrier removal can best improve connectivity to develop a return-on-investment framework for connectivity restoration. An iterative series of barrier analyses followed by simulated restorations allowed us to incorporate cumulative effects of previous restoration decisions, which can alter the potential value of future restorations. To demonstrate our approach, we identify specific sites that, if restored, would most increase habitat connectivity for the Washington ground squirrel (Urocitellus washingtoni). The analysis was performed in two ways: first without consideration of economic costs and then again, explicitly incorporating the costs of land purchase and restoration. We found that accounting for land costs could reduce overall restoration costs by 55% and increase the area of land restored by 30%. These methods can be tailored to meet different connectivity objectives and can complement reserve design selection methods that prioritize conservation of contiguous natural areas.