As penetrations of renewable wind energy increase, accurate short-term predictions of wind power become crucial to utilities that must balance the load and supply of electricity. As storage of wind energy is not yet feasible on a large scale, the utility must integrate wind energy as soon as it is generated and decide at each balancing time-step whether a change in conventional energy output is required. With high penetrations of wind energy, utilities must also plan for operating reserves to maintain stability of the electricity system when forecasts for renewable energy are inaccurate. Thus, a simple forecast of whether the wind power will increase, decrease or not change in the next time-step will give utility operators an easy tool for assessing whether changes need to be made to the current generation mix. In this work, Markov chain models based on the change in power output at up to three locations or lags in time are presented that not only produce such an hourly forecast but also include a measure of the uncertainty of the forecast. Forecasts are greatly improved when knowledge of whether the maximum or minimum wind power is currently being produced and the intrahour trend in wind power are incorporated. These models are trained, tested and evaluated with a uniquely long set of 2 years of 10 min measurements at four meteorological stations in the Pacific Northwest and perform better than a benchmark state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting model.
The K-12 and Pre-College Engineering Division of ASEE is recognizing exemplary K-12university partnerships in engineering education at the 2011 ASEE Annual Conference and Exposition in Vancouver, Canada. To do this, the Division is sponsoring a panel session on Best Practices in K-12 and university partnerships. Submissions chosen for participation in this session demonstrate a true partnership between a K-12 school (or schools) and an engineering school/college at a university. Selected partnerships have data to support proven success in the classroom and demonstrate engineering engagement and knowledge acquisition by K-12 students through age appropriate activities and lessons. Best Practices Partnership Panel winners' papers are authored collaboratively between engineering and technology education faculty and K-12 teachers. Details on the partnership's structure and goals, the strategies employed to overcome challenges and obstacles, and successes and lessons learned are included. Each partnership's description includes sample student product(s) and conveys how other partnerships may emulate the project. One proposal winner was chosen by a panel of reviewers at each of the following levels: preschool or elementary school; middle school; high school. The three winning abstracts have been used to create a conference paper for this session.
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