Background: Despite marked recent improvements in long-read sequencing technology, the assembly of diploid genomes remains a difficult task. A major obstacle is distinguishing between alternative contigs that represent highly heterozygous regions. If primary and secondary contigs are not properly identified, the primary assembly will overrepresent both the size and complexity of the genome, which complicates downstream analysis such as scaffolding.Results: Here we illustrate a new method, which we call HapSolo, that identifies secondary contigs and defines a primary assembly based on multiple pairwise contig alignment metrics. HapSolo evaluates candidate primary assemblies using BUSCO scores and then distinguishes among candidate assemblies using a cost function. The cost function can be defined by the user but by default considers the number of missing, duplicated and single BUSCO genes within the assembly. HapSolo performs hill climbing to minimize cost over thousands of candidate assemblies. We illustrate the performance of HapSolo on genome data from three species: the Chardonnay grape (Vitis vinifera), with a genome of 490 Mb, a mosquito (Anopheles funestus; 200 Mb) and the Thorny Skate (Amblyraja radiata; 2650 Mb). Conclusions:HapSolo rapidly identified candidate assemblies that yield improvements in assembly metrics, including decreased genome size and improved N50 scores. Contig N50 scores improved by 35%, 9% and 9% for Chardonnay, mosquito and the thorny skate, respectively, relative to unreduced primary assemblies. The benefits of HapSolo were amplified by down-stream analyses, which we illustrated by scaffolding with Hi-C data. We found, for example, that prior to the application of HapSolo, only 52% of the Chardonnay genome was captured in the largest 19 scaffolds, corresponding to the number of chromosomes. After the application of HapSolo, this value increased to ~ 84%. The improvements for the mosquito's largest three scaffolds, representing the number of chromosomes, were from 61 to 86%, and the improvement was even more pronounced for thorny skate. We compared the scaffolding results to assemblies that were based on PurgeDups for identifying secondary contigs, with generally superior results for HapSolo.

Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

We propose a Bayesian model for projecting first-wave COVID-19 deaths in all 50 U.S. states. Our model's projections are based on data derived from mobile-phone GPS traces, which allows us to estimate how socialdistancing behavior is "flattening the curve" in each state. In a two-week look-ahead test of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, our model significantly outperforms the widely used model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), achieving 42% lower prediction error: 13.2 deaths per day average error across all U.S. states, versus 22.8 deaths per day average error for the IHME model. Our model also provides an accurate, if slightly conservative, assessment of forecasting accuracy: in the same look-ahead test, 98% of data points fell within the model's 95% credible intervals. Our model's projections are updated daily at https://covid-19. tacc.utexas.edu/projections/. : medRxiv preprint Model overviewAt a high level, our model shares some key properties of the IHME model.Similarity 1: a statistical curve-fitting approach. Ours is not an epidemiological model, in the sense that we do not try to model disease transmission, 2 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance Statement This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.