This study explores the connection between oil price, stock prices, and exchange rate in Kazakhstan employing a monthly data from October 2007 to December 2017. Time series data were collected from National Bank of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, and Energy Information Administration. Both bivariate and multivariate cases were employed. At the same time, the Johansen and Juselius cointegration procedures were employed in the study. The analysis was conducted for bivariate as well as multivariate cases. Empirical tests demonstrate that all the series are nonstationary in levels but stationary in differences. Results of this analysis do not find long-run correlation between the variables in a bivariate model, however, detect one in a multivariable model. Results demonstrate that stock prices and exchange rate are affected by oil price in Kazakhstan based on Granger causality test. Our findings imply that policy wise, monetary authorities in Kazakhstan in attaining their exchange rate policy objective should be considering the implications for financial market. These results are important to regulatory exchange authorities when deciding on policy to improve the market conditions.

This study empirically explores the causal relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Kazakhstan. The specific objective of this study is to investigate whether the causality direction between financial depth and economic growth in Kazakhstan does in fact apply. With this aim, the data from 20 banks operating between 2006 and 2015 was used. This data was obtained from the National Bank of Kazakhstan Statistical Bulletin. Quarterly observations are collected in aggregate form during 1Q 2006 – 4Q 2015 for GDP in level and stock market index value, and individual observations from the 20 largest banks during 1Q 2006 – 4Q 2015 for total lending volume in level in percent point, and total deposit volume in level. These quarterly data are employed in the panel study framework. The results of the study show that banks’ lending significantly strongly affects economic growth in Kazakhstan. At the same time, GDP also significantly strongly affects banks’ lending. Therefore, there is mutual causality between banks’ lending and the economy (Gross Domestic Product) in Kazakhstan. Both the economy and the financial sector do affect each other positively and significantly.

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This study empirically explores the causal relationship between the stock market development and oil price in Russia, UK and Kazakhstan. With this aim, the data between 2000 and 2017 was used. This data was obtained from Bloomberg. The data includes Index KASE, RTS Index, FTSE Index and oil price. In order to find out the dependence between oil price and indexes of United Kingdom, Russian Federation and Kazakhstan (FTSE 100 index, RTS index and index KASE respectively) it was necessary to collect the data first of all. For the analysis it was decided to choose, as variables, the prices and trade volumes of chosen instruments. As it was mentioned previously, I looked through the 17-year period starting from January 1 st , 2000 lasting January 1 st , 2018. Monthly data was retrieved from Bloomberg. The purpose of the empirical analysis is to determine what kind of relationship, if any, exists between oil price and such stock indices as KASE Index, RTS Index and FTSE Index. This study investigates the interaction between the oil price and three indices. Quite an interesting fact is that there are no any significant relationships between oil price and indexes studied. Among all indices studied, Index KASE is the most dependent on oil prices. The least dependent index is FTSE index. It is important to understand that every country has its own research environment and special features, which also could be researched independently. Taking into consideration the importance of oil export earnings to the growth profile of the Kazakhstani economy, higher oil export revenues would result in the growth of Index KASE. Majority of companies listed in Kazakhstani index are export oriented. Thus, the study can serve as a promising avenue for further research. For example, for Kazakhstan, some new research indicators can be added, such as weight of export and import.

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