With the coming data deluge from synoptic surveys, there is a growing need for frameworks that can quickly and automatically produce calibrated classification probabilities for newly-observed variables based on a small number of time-series measurements. In this paper, we introduce a methodology for variable-star classification, drawing from modern machine-learning techniques. We describe how to homogenize the information gleaned from light curves by selection and computation of real-numbered metrics (features), detail methods to robustly estimate periodic light-curve features, introduce treeensemble methods for accurate variable star classification, and show how to rigorously evaluate the classification results using cross validation. On a 25-class data set of 1542 well-studied variable stars, we achieve a 22.8% overall classification error using the random forest classifier; this represents a 24% improvement over the best previous classifier on these data. This methodology is effective for identifying samples of specific science classes: for pulsational variables used in Milky Way tomography we obtain a discovery efficiency of 98.2% and for eclipsing systems we find an efficiency of 99.1%, both at 95% purity. We show that the random forest (RF) classifier is superior to other machine-learned methods in terms of accuracy, speed, and relative immunity to features with no useful class information; the RF classifier can also be used to estimate the importance of each feature in classification. Additionally, we present the first astronomical use of hierarchical classification methods to incorporate a known class taxonomy in the classifier, which further reduces the catastrophic error rate to 7.8%. Excluding low-amplitude sources, our overall error rate improves to 14%, with a catastrophic error rate of 3.5%. 5 High-precision photometry missions (Kepler, MOST, CoRoT, etc.) are already challenging the theoretical understanding of the origin of variability and the connection of some specific sources to established classes of variables. 6 General Catalog of Variable Stars, http://www.sai.msu.su/groups/cluster/gcvs/gcvs/ 7 Not discussed herein are the challenges associated with discovery of variability. See Shin et al. (2009) for a review.

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Temporal sampling does more than add another axis to the vector of observables. Instead, under the recognition that how objects change (and move) in time speaks directly to the physics underlying astronomical phenomena, next-generation wide-field synoptic surveys are poised to revolutionize our understanding of just about anything that goes bump in the night (which is just about everything at some level). Still, even the most ambitious surveys will require targeted spectroscopic follow-up to fill in the physical details of newly discovered transients. We are now building a new system intended to ingest and classify transient phenomena in near real-time from high-throughput imaging data streams. Described herein, the Transient Classification Project at Berkeley will be making use of classification techniques operating on "features" extracted from time series and contextual (static) information. We also highlight the need for a community adoption of a standard representation of astronomical time series data (ie. "VOTimeseries").

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Gaussian processes are a class of flexible nonparametric Bayesian tools that are widely used across the sciences, and in industry, to model complex data sources. Key to applying Gaussian process models is the availability of well-developed open source software, which is available in many programming languages. In this paper, we present a tutorial of the GaussianProcesses.jl package that has been developed for the Julia programming language. GaussianProcesses.jl utilizes the inherent computational benefits of the Julia language, including multiple dispatch and just-in-time compilation, to produce a fast, flexible and user-friendly Gaussian processes package. The package provides many mean and kernel functions with supporting inference tools to fit exact Gaussian process models, as well as a range of alternative likelihood functions to handle non-Gaussian data (e.g., binary classification models) and sparse approximations for scalable Gaussian processes. The package makes efficient use of existing Julia packages to provide users with a range of optimization and plotting tools.

Gaussian processes are a class of flexible nonparametric Bayesian tools that are widely used across the sciences, and in industry, to model complex data sources. Key to applying Gaussian process models is the availability of well-developed open source software, which is available in many programming languages. In this paper, we present a tutorial of the GaussianProcesses.jl package that has been developed for the Julia programming language. GaussianProcesses.jl utilises the inherent computational benefits of the Julia language, including multiple dispatch and just-in-time compilation, to produce a fast, flexible and user-friendly Gaussian processes package. The package provides many mean and kernel functions with supporting inference tools to fit exact Gaussian process models, as well as a range of alternative likelihood functions to handle non-Gaussian data (e.g. binary classification models) and sparse approximations for scalable Gaussian processes. The package makes efficient use of existing Julia packages to provide users with a range of optimization and plotting tools.

Most research on regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) has focused on univariate cases, where only those units with a "forcing" variable on one side of a threshold value receive a treatment. Geographical regression discontinuity designs (GeoRDDs) extend the RDD to multivariate settings with spatial forcing variables. We propose a framework for analysing GeoRDDs, which we implement using Gaussian process regression. This yields a Bayesian posterior distribution of the treatment effect at every point along the border. We address nuances of having a functional estimand defined on a border with potentially intricate topology, particularly when defining and estimating causal estimands of the local average treatment effect (LATE). The Bayesian estimate of the LATE can also be used as a test statistic in a hypothesis test with good frequentist properties, which we validate using simulations and placebo tests. We demonstrate our methodology with a dataset of property sales in New York City, to assess whether there is a discontinuity in housing prices at the border between two school district. We find a statistically significant difference in price across the border between the districts with p=0.002, and estimate a 20% higher price on average for a house on the more desirable side.

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