Graphical abstract

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.

Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) was first introduced to Europe from North America more than 150 years ago, was then planted on a large scale and is now the economically most important exotic tree species in European forests. This literature review summarizes the current knowledge on the effects of Douglas fir on soil chemistry, plants, arthropods and fungi. Douglas fir shapes its abiotic environment similarly to native tree species such as Norway spruce, silver fir or European beech. In general, many organisms have been shown to be able to live together with Douglas fir and in some cases even benefit from its presence. Although the number of species of the ground vegetation and that of arthropod communities is similar to those of native conifer species, fungal diversity is reduced by Douglas fir. Special microclimatic conditions in the crown of Douglas fir can lead to reduced arthropod densities during winter with possible negative consequences for birds. The ecological impacts of Douglas fir are in general not as severe as those of other exotic tree species, e.g., Pinus spp. in South Africa and Ailanthus altissima, Prunus serotina and Robinia pseudoacacia in Europe. Nonetheless, Douglas fir can negatively impact single groups of organisms or species and is now regenerating itself naturally in Europe. Although Douglas fir has not been the subject of large-scale outbreaks of pests in Europe so far, the further introduction of exotic organisms associated with Douglas fir in its native range could be more problematic than the introduction of Douglas fir itself.

The ongoing increase in global temperature affects biodiversity, especially in mountain regions where climate change is exacerbated. As sessile, long‐lived organisms, trees are especially challenged in terms of adapting to rapid climate change. Here, we show that low rates of allele frequency shifts in Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) occurring near the treeline result in high genomic vulnerability to future climate warming, presumably due to the species’ long generation time. Using exome sequencing data from adult and juvenile cohorts in the Swiss Alps, we found an average rate of allele frequency shift of 1.23 × 10−2/generation (i.e. 40 years) at presumably neutral loci, with similar rates for putatively adaptive loci associated with temperature (0.96 × 10−2/generation) and precipitation (0.91 × 10−2/generation). These recent shifts were corroborated by forward‐in‐time simulations at neutral and adaptive loci. Additionally, in juvenile trees at the colonisation front we detected alleles putatively beneficial under a future warmer and drier climate. Notably, the observed past rate of allele frequency shift in temperature‐associated loci was decidedly lower than the estimated average rate of 6.29 × 10−2/generation needed to match a moderate future climate scenario (RCP4.5). Our findings suggest that species with long generation times may have difficulty keeping up with the rapid climate change occurring in high mountain areas and thus are prone to local extinction in their current main elevation range.