ObjectiveTo compare the effects of treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).DesignLiving systematic review and network meta-analysis.Data sourcesUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Research Articles Downloadable Database, which includes 25 electronic databases and six additional Chinese databases to 20 July 2020.Study selectionRandomised clinical trials in which people with suspected, probable, or confirmed covid-19 were randomised to drug treatment or to standard care or placebo. Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible articles.MethodsAfter duplicate data abstraction, a bayesian random effects network meta-analysis was conducted. Risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using a modification of the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool, and the certainty of the evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach. For each outcome, interventions were classified in groups from the most to the least beneficial or harmful following GRADE guidance.Results23 randomised controlled trials were included in the analysis performed on 26 June 2020. The certainty of the evidence for most comparisons was very low because of risk of bias (lack of blinding) and serious imprecision. Glucocorticoids were the only intervention with evidence for a reduction in death compared with standard care (risk difference 37 fewer per 1000 patients, 95% credible interval 63 fewer to 11 fewer, moderate certainty) and mechanical ventilation (31 fewer per 1000 patients, 47 fewer to 9 fewer, moderate certainty). These estimates are based on direct evidence; network estimates for glucocorticoids compared with standard care were less precise because of network heterogeneity. Three drugs might reduce symptom duration compared with standard care: hydroxychloroquine (mean difference −4.5 days, low certainty), remdesivir (−2.6 days, moderate certainty), and lopinavir-ritonavir (−1.2 days, low certainty). Hydroxychloroquine might increase the risk of adverse events compared with the other interventions, and remdesivir probably does not substantially increase the risk of adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation. No other interventions included enough patients to meaningfully interpret adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation.ConclusionGlucocorticoids probably reduce mortality and mechanical ventilation in patients with covid-19 compared with standard care. The effectiveness of most interventions is uncertain because most of the randomised controlled trials so far have been small and have important study limitations.Systematic review registrationThis review was not registered. The protocol is included as a supplement.Readers’ noteThis article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication.

BackgroundSensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variations—such as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and outliers—on the overall conclusions of a study.The current paper is the second in a series of tutorial-type manuscripts intended to discuss and clarify aspects related to key methodological issues in the design and analysis of clinical trials.DiscussionIn this paper we will provide a detailed exploration of the key aspects of sensitivity analyses including: 1) what sensitivity analyses are, why they are needed, and how often they are used in practice; 2) the different types of sensitivity analyses that one can do, with examples from the literature; 3) some frequently asked questions about sensitivity analyses; and 4) some suggestions on how to report the results of sensitivity analyses in clinical trials.SummaryWhen reporting on a clinical trial, we recommend including planned or posthoc sensitivity analyses, the corresponding rationale and results along with the discussion of the consequences of these analyses on the overall findings of the study.

Objective:To summarize the best available evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions for preventing frailty progression in older adults.Introduction:Frailty is an age-related state of decreased physiological reserves characterized by an increased risk of poor clinical outcomes. Evidence supporting the malleability of frailty, its prevention and treatment, has been presented.Inclusion criteria:The review considered studies on older adults aged 65 and over, explicitly identified as pre-frail or frail, who had been undergoing interventions focusing on the prevention of frailty progression. Participants selected on the basis of specific illness or with a terminal diagnosis were excluded. The comparator was usual care, alternative therapeutic interventions or no intervention. The primary outcome was frailty. Secondary outcomes included: (i) cognition, quality of life, activities of daily living, caregiver burden, functional capacity, depression and other mental health-related outcomes, self-perceived health and social engagement; (ii) drugs and prescriptions, analytical parameters, adverse outcomes and comorbidities; (iii) costs, and/or costs relative to benefits and/or savings associated with implementing the interventions for frailty. Experimental study designs, cost effectiveness, cost benefit, cost minimization and cost utility studies were considered for inclusion.Methods:Databases for published and unpublished studies, available in English, Portuguese, Spanish, Italian and Dutch, from January 2001 to November 2015, were searched. Critical appraisal was conducted using standardized instruments from the Joanna Briggs Institute. Data was extracted using the standardized tools designed for quantitative and economic studies. Data was presented in a narrative form due to the heterogeneity of included studies.Results:Twenty-one studies, all randomized controlled trials, with a total of 5275 older adults and describing 33 interventions, met the criteria for inclusion. Economic analyses were conducted in two studies. Physical exercise programs were shown to be generally effective for reducing or postponing frailty but only when conducted in groups. Favorable effects on frailty indicators were also observed after the interventions, based on physical exercise with supplementation, supplementation alone, cognitive training and combined treatment. Group meetings and home visits were not found to be universally effective. Lack of efficacy was evidenced for physical exercise performed individually or delivered one-to-one, hormone supplementation and problem solving therapy. Individually tailored management programs for clinical conditions had inconsistent effects on frailty prevalence. Economic studies demonstrated that this type of intervention, as compared to usual care, provided better value for money, particularly for very frail community-dwelling participants, and had favorable effects in some of the frailty-related outcomes in inpatient and outpatient management, without increasing costs.Conclusions:Th...

Summary. Background:In patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), the optimal duration of anticoagulation is anchored on estimating the risk of disease recurrence. Objectives: We aimed to develop a score that could predict the recurrence risk following a first episode of unprovoked VTE, pooling individual patient data from seven prospective studies. Methods: One thousand eight hundred and eighteen cases with unprovoked VTE treated for at least 3 months with a vitamin K antagonist were available for analysis. Optimism-corrected Cox regression coefficients were used to develop a recurrence score that was subsequently internally validated by bootstrap analysis. Results: Abnormal D-dimer after stopping anticoagulation, age < 50 years, male sex and VTE not associated with hormonal therapy (in women) were the main predictors of recurrence and were used to derive a prognostic recurrence score (DASH, D-dimer, Age, Sex, Hormonal therapy) showing a satisfactory predictive capability (ROC area = 0.71). The annualized recurrence risk was 3.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-3.9) for a score £ 1, 6.4% (95% CI, 4.8-7.9) for a score = 2 and 12.3% (95% CI, 9.9-14.7) for a score ‡ 3. By considering at low recurrence risk those patients with a score £ 1, life-long anticoagulation might be avoided in about half of patients with unprovoked VTE. Conclusions: The DASH prediction rule appears to predict recurrence risk in patients with a first unprovoked VTE and may be useful to decide whether anticoagulant therapy should be continued indefinitely or stopped after an initial treatment period of at least 3 months.

The risk of recurrence is low if VTE is provoked by surgery, intermediate if provoked by a nonsurgical risk factor, and high if unprovoked. These risks affect whether patients with VTE should undergo short-term vs indefinite treatment.

previously untreated hemophilia A patients treated with plasma-derived or recombinant factor VIII concentrates: a systematic review. J Thromb Haemost 2010; 8: 1256-65.Summary. Background: Different rates of inhibitor development after either plasma-derived (pdFVIII) or recombinant (rFVIII) FVIII have been suggested. However, conflicting results are reported in the literature. Objectives: To systematically review the incidence rates of inhibitor development in previously untreated patients (PUPs) with hemophilia A treated with either pdFVIII or rFVIII and to explore the influence of both study and patient characteristics. Methods: Summary incidence rates (95% confidence interval) from all included studies for both pdFVIII and rFVIII results were recalculated and pooled. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the effect of study design, severity of disease and inhibitor characteristics. Meta-regression and analysis-of-variance were used to investigate the effect of covariates (testing frequency, follow-up duration and intensity of treatment). Results: Two thousand and ninety-four patients (1167 treated with pdFVIII, 927 with rFVIII; median age, 9.6 months) from 24 studies were investigated and 420 patients were observed to develop inhibitors. Pooled incidence rate was 14.3% (10.4-19.4) for pdFVIII and 27.4% (23.6-31.5) for rFVIII; high responding inhibitor incidence rate was 9.3% (6.2-13.7) for pdFVIII and 17.4% (14.2-21.2) for rFVIII. In the multi-way ANOVA study design, study period, testing frequency and median follow-up explained most of the variability, while the source of concentrate lost statistical significance. It was not possible to analyse the effect of intensity of treatment or trigger events such as surgery, and to completely exclude multiple reports of the same patient or changes of concentrate. Conclusions: These findings underscore the need for randomized controlled trials to address whether or not the risk of inhibitor in PUPs with hemophilia A differs between rFVIII and pdFVIII.

Purposes: We evaluated the prevalence and factors associated with polypharmacy and investigated the role of polypharmacy as a predictor of length of hospital stay and in-hospital mortality. Methods: Thirty-eight internal medicine wards in Italy participated in the Registro Politerapie SIMI (REPOSI) study during 2008. One thousand three hundred and thirty-two in-patients aged ≥65 years were enrolled. Polypharmacy was defined as the concomitant use of five or more medications. Linear regression analyses were used to evaluate predictors of length of hospital stay and logistic regression models for predictors of in-hospital mortality. Age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, polypharmacy, and number of in-hospital clinical adverse events (AEs) were used as possible confounders. Results: The prevalence of polypharmacy was 51.9% at hospital admission and 67.0% at discharge. Age, number of drugs at admission, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were independently associated with polypharmacy at discharge. In multivariate analysis, the occurrence of at least one AE while in hospital was the only predictor of prolonged hospitalization (each new AE prolonged hospital stay by 3.57 days, p<0.0001). Age [odds ratio (OR) 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.08; p=0.02), comorbidities (OR 1.18; 95% CI 1.12-1.24; p<0.0001), and AEs (OR 6.80; 95% CI 3.58-12.9; p<0.0001) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: Although most elderly in-patients receive polypharmacy, in this study, it was not associated with any hospital outcome. However, AEs were strongly correlated with a longer hospital stay and higher mortality risk. © 2011 Springer-Verlag

Although a number of studies have analysed so far the causes of death and the life expectancy in haemophilic populations, no investigations have been conducted among Italian haemophilia centres. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate mortality, causes of deaths, life expectancy and co-morbidities in Italian persons with haemophilia (PWH). Data pertaining to a total of 443 PWH who died between 1980 and 2007 were retrospectively collected in the 30 centres who are members of the Italian Association of Haemophilia Centres that chose to participate. The mortality rate ratio standardized to the male Italian population (SMR) was reduced during the periods 1990-1999 and 2000-2007 such that during the latter, death rate overlapped that of the general population (SMR 1990-1999: 1.98 95% CI 1.54-2.51; SMR 2000-2007: 1.08 95% CI 0.83-1.40). Similarly, life expectancy in the whole haemophilic population increased in the same period (71.2 years in 2000-2007 vs. 64.0 in 1990-1999), approaching that of the general male population. While human immunodeficiency virus infection was the main cause of death (45%), 13% of deaths were caused by hepatitis C-associated complications. The results of this retrospective study show that in Italian PWH improvements in the quality of treatment and global medical care provided by specialized haemophilia centres resulted in a significantly increased life expectancy.