No abstract

. 2013. Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia: an object-oriented Bayesian network approach. Ecosphere 4(7):90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES12-00357.1Abstract. Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

Cheetahs and other apex predators are threatened by human-wildlife conflict and habitat degradation. Bush encroachment creates one of the biggest forms of habitat change, thus it is important to understand the impact this has on habitat use. We investigated habitat preferences of five male cheetahs in Namibian farmlands degraded by bush encroachment. Cheetahs were tracked using satellite based Global System for Mobile (GSM) collars providing a higher resolution on ranging behavior. We aimed to investigate: 1) habitat characteristics; 2) evidence for habitat selection; 3) temporal activity partitioning; and 4) whether revisits to locations were related to habitat type. There were differences in habitat characteristics, showing that cheetahs were able to utilise different habitats. Fecal pellet counts revealed that warthog, oryx, scrub hare and kudu were most abundant. The cheetahs spent more time in high visibility shrubland, suggesting they selected rewarding patches within predominantly bush-encroached landscapes. The usage in marginal habitat was strikingly influenced by habitat type, with both previously cleared and open vegetated areas showing high proportions in edge use. Individuals exhibited significant temporal activity partitioning, showing peaks between late afternoon and early morning hours. This finding could be key to managing human-wildlife conflict by showing that increased protection such as the use of herders and livestock guarding dogs should be used as mitigation methods to minimize the impact of cheetah specific temporal patterns at all times as defined in this research. Visits to the same locations were not correlated to habitat type; revisits may be dictated by other reasons such as social interaction, prey density or avoidance of other predators. Findings from this study will help build existing knowledge on the effects bush encroachment has on cheetah habitat preference.

Abstract. Savanna ecosystems are subject to desertification and bush encroachment, which reduce the carrying capacity for wildlife and livestock. Bush thinning is a management approach that can, at least temporarily, restore grasslands and raise the grazing value of the land. In this study we examined the soil microbial communities under bush and grass in Namibia. We analyzed the soil through a chronosequence where bush was thinned at 9, 5, or 3 years before sampling. Soil microbial biomass, the biomass of specific taxonomic groups, and overall microbial community structure was determined by phospholipid fatty acid analysis, while the community structure of Bacteria, Archaea, and fungi was determined by multiplex terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Soil under bush had higher pH, C, N, and microbial biomass than under grass, and the microbial community structure was also altered under bush compared to grass. A major disturbance to the ecosystem, bush thinning, resulted in an altered microbial community structure compared to control plots, but the magnitude of this perturbation gradually declined with time. Community structure was primarily driven by pH, C, and N, while vegetation type, bush thinning, and time since bush thinning were of secondary importance.

Assessing trends in abundance and density of species of conservation concern is vital to inform conservation and management strategies. The remaining population of the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) largely exists outside of protected areas, where they are often in conflict with humans. Despite this, the population status and dynamics of cheetah outside of protected areas have received relatively limited attention across its range. We analyzed remote camera trapping data of nine surveys conducted from 2005 to 2014 in the Waterberg Conservancy, north‐central Namibia, which included detections of 74 individuals (52 adult males, 7 adult females and 15 dependents). Using spatial capture–recapture methods, we assessed annual and seasonal trends in cheetah density. We found evidence of a stable trend in cheetah density over the study period, with an average density of 1.94/100 km2 (95% confidence interval 1.33–2.84). This apparent stability of cheetah density is likely the result of stable and abundant prey availability, a high tolerance to carnivores by farmers and low turnover rates in home range tenure. This study highlights the importance of promoting long‐term surveys that capture a broad range of environmental variation that may influence species density and the importance of nonprotected areas for cheetah conservation.