We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical speci…cation of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.JEL classi…cation: E32, C32.

This paper integrates a fully explicit model of agency costs into an otherwise standard Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model in a particularly transparent way. A principle result is the characterization of agency costs as endogenous mark-up shocks in an output-gap version of the Phillips curve. The model's utility-based welfare criterion is derived explicitly and includes a measure of credit market tightness which we interpret as a risk premium. The paper also fully characterizes optimal monetary policy and provides conditions under which zero inflation is the optimal policy. Finally, optimal policy can be expressed as an inflation targeting criterion that (depending upon parameter values) can be either forward or backward-looking.

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